$0.02 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3
Hero (MP+1): $2.02
CO: $1.31
BTN: $1.14
SB: $7.15
BB: $6.17
UTG: $0.50
UTG+1: $2.16
MP: $3.36
SB posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02
Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero has 8♣ 8♦
fold, UTG+1 calls $0.02, fold, Hero calls $0.02, fold, fold, SB raises to $0.08, fold, UTG+1 calls $0.06, Hero calls $0.06
Flop: ($0.26, 3 players) 3♠ 8♠ 5♣
SB checks, UTG+1 bets $0.26, Hero calls $0.26, fold
Turn: ($0.78, 2 players) Q♠
UTG+1 bets $0.78, Hero calls $0.78
River: ($2.34, 2 players) 7♠
UTG+1 bets $1.04, Hero calls $0.90
How often can i fold a set to a 4 card flush?
Is it possible to explain with a math equation?
Though i know when people like or dislike suited cards, i just want to erase that and calculate out the probability that he has a flush.
How does the equation differ when its a mid set or min set?
How does the quation differ when the last flush card on river is either K or A? (Thinking of overpairs)
I'm thinking now that the most common aswer is, get it in on flop. However low varianse is sometimes a more relaxing choice ♦
He could also have TT-AA with a spade to the flush
so 2nd q:
How often can villain fold to a check shove on turn with TT-AA (1 spade) or 33, 55
Im right to say that he never folds set to checkshove, even though i never do this as a bluff?
And how does this change the equation if he's never 3rd barrel as a bluff? (nit reg)
And i am right saying that the fold is more often the best option when over 200bb ?



