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JJ vs turn raise

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DeLau
Joined: 10.01.2009

Hi,

villain is 22/18 over 180 hands so looks like a regular. 3bet 2.7%. No postflop sample (cbets 70%).

On flop I think he would mostly raise with sets w 2 players behind (of which one is a fish). So I have him on TT, 99 mostly. Sometimes 2pair+, maybe 89s. If he raises turn it looks like a set. Would he ever turn TT, 99 into a bluff here?

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Everest
SB ($24.35)
BB ($20.75)
UTG ($118)
Hero ($116)
CO ($108)
BTN ($124)

Dealt to Hero J♥ J♦

fold, Hero raises to $3.50, CO calls $3.50, BTN calls $3.50, fold, BB calls $2.50

FLOP ($14.50) 6♥ 8♦ 7♣

BB checks, Hero bets $10, CO calls $10, BTN calls $10, BB folds

TURN ($44.50) 6♥ 8♦ 7♣ 2♣

Hero bets $29, CO raises to $94.60 (AI), BTN folds, Hero folds

CO wins $99.50


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2 replies

Turn is a c/f imo.

Pretty sure its almost always a valuecut betting the turn on this texture after flop goes 4way

Most players at 100nl will just call/fold 99-TT here


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yh I agree the turn is a fold, I guess if you knew nothing about the oppo then betting would be a decent vacuum line to take but miles better if you're deeper imo as the stacks are perfect for him to shove as played on a texture that generally hits PF calling ranges harder than EP opening ranges. So you do leave yourself open to be semi-bluffed here a ton which considering I don't see anyway we can call off is a very strong reason to not bet.

i think he can DEFO flat sets OTF with 100bb stacks, especially with a fishier player to act behind there aren't THAT many terrible turn cards and he can price him in to bad stack off's with P+SD kinda hands.


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