This week's hand review from the Basic FL coaching.
$0.1/$0.2 Fixed-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)
Preflop: Hero is CO with 7:h, 7:s.
UTG calls, 5 folds, Hero raises, 3 folds, UTG calls.
Spoiler
You won't find 77 in the Basic ORC. They recommend raising 99+ vs 1 limper. However, bronze preflop strategy encourages us to raise as wide as 66+ vs 1 limper from late position but ONLY when 66+ is in your ORC.
In other words, when they suggest we should open raise 77+ from the CO then we should also raise 1 limper with 77+. There are other ways of thinking about this decision that let us understand why we raise but the bronze articles are a great starting place for more advanced strategy. So anyways I raise preflop.
Flop: (5.5 SB) 8:d, Q:d, A:h (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero folds
Spoiler
When he bets out on the flop most of the time he's either ahead or has a pretty decent draw. When I'm behind I'm way behind. When I'm ahead most of the time I'm not far ahead. Also, on many turn and river cards I will be forced to fold; my opponent has a lot of fold equity..
For simplicity we could give him decent draws half the time and better hands half the time. When I'm behind i have 10% equity, two 7s that will usually secure the win. When I'm ahead my opponent might average 12 outs. He has roughly 50% equity when behind.
I cannot draw profitably so I can only continue if I'm ahead often enough to justify a call down. Technically I can also continue with the intention of bluffing, but lets set that aside.
To call down i need a bit more than 30% equity. We've guessed that half the time i have 50% equity and half the tim ei have 10% equity. My estimated equity turns out to be .5*.1 + .5*.5 = 30%. Exactly 30%. Calling down isn't a profitable option.
This spot is made more difficult by the fact that lots of turn and river cards are bad for my hand. When draws come in I need to re-evaluate and often fold. Calling on the flop is harder to justify when your opponent has a lot of fold equity on various bad turn and river cards.
Therefore, folding is better than calling.