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Advanced [Bronze] Preflop line - Faced with Flop donk.

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This week's hand review from the Basic FL coaching.

$0.1/$0.2 Fixed-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 7:h, 7:s.
UTG calls, 5 folds, Hero raises, 3 folds, UTG calls.

Spoiler

You won't find 77 in the Basic ORC. They recommend raising 99+ vs 1 limper. However, bronze preflop strategy encourages us to raise as wide as 66+ vs 1 limper from late position but ONLY when 66+ is in your ORC.

In other words, when they suggest we should open raise 77+ from the CO then we should also raise 1 limper with 77+. There are other ways of thinking about this decision that let us understand why we raise but the bronze articles are a great starting place for more advanced strategy. So anyways I raise preflop.

Flop: (5.5 SB) 8:d, Q:d, A:h (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero folds

Spoiler

When he bets out on the flop most of the time he's either ahead or has a pretty decent draw. When I'm behind I'm way behind. When I'm ahead most of the time I'm not far ahead. Also, on many turn and river cards I will be forced to fold; my opponent has a lot of fold equity..

For simplicity we could give him decent draws half the time and better hands half the time. When I'm behind i have 10% equity, two 7s that will usually secure the win. When I'm ahead my opponent might average 12 outs. He has roughly 50% equity when behind.

I cannot draw profitably so I can only continue if I'm ahead often enough to justify a call down. Technically I can also continue with the intention of bluffing, but lets set that aside.

To call down i need a bit more than 30% equity. We've guessed that half the time i have 50% equity and half the tim ei have 10% equity. My estimated equity turns out to be .5*.1 + .5*.5 = 30%. Exactly 30%. Calling down isn't a profitable option.

This spot is made more difficult by the fact that lots of turn and river cards are bad for my hand. When draws come in I need to re-evaluate and often fold. Calling on the flop is harder to justify when your opponent has a lot of fold equity on various bad turn and river cards.

Therefore, folding is better than calling.


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2 replies
Dawnfall26
Joined: 30.07.2008

Hi!

Yap,standard fold for reasons you well mentioned.Another way to look at it is...what would you do to c/r? You would(at least you should) fold since equity is terrible.Once he donks pot is even smaller and even less necessity to continue.


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Yeah, same problem really. We would be getting a better price but there are too many BB street scenarios where we'll need to fold.

It starts to sound like the limper should bluff us a lot BUT this board actually hits our range pretty well.

77 is the weakest made hand we'll have if we're following Bronze preflop strategy. otherwise we'll have at least a GSSD and overcards to bottom pair.


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