JTs – PokerStrategy

akasoul

Joined: 17.06.2007

29.05.2012, 15:50 0

Hi,

I have a question about on how to calculate the equity and outs and pot odds.

According to the ranges I put on equilab I have like 20% equity and I have to pay 1/7(thats 14% equity minimum???) without counting the implied odds so is a call.

and if I think in odd I have like 5 I think?? (gutshot and backdoor fllush) and that would be around 5/47 (13*4-5=47)= 10,6%

So I have 2 diferent results, maybe its because counting the odds doesnt counting the fact that CO could have something like 99 o that kind of stuff.

Could you please help me???

Thanks

www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: As5dQc
Equity Win Tie
CO 56.81% 54.57% 2.24% { 77+, A3s+, KTs+, Q9s+, JTs, A6o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
SB 22.74% 21.13% 1.61% { 66-33, A8s-A2s, K9s-K2s, Q9s-Q2s, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, ATo-A2o, KJo-K5o, Q7o+, J7o+, T7o+, 98o }
BB 20.45% 19.03% 1.42% { JdTd }

Party, $0.15/$0.30 Limit Hold'em Cash, 4 Players

Preflop: Hero is BB with J T
CO raises, BTN folds, SB calls, Hero calls

Flop: (6 SB) A 5 Q (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, CO bets, SB folds, Hero calls

Turn: (4 BB) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero folds

Results: 4 BB pot (0.2 BB rake)
Final Board: A 5 Q 5
CO mucked and won 3.8 BB (2.3 BB net)
Hero mucked J T and lost (-1.5 BB net)

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3 replies

_Anonymous_

29.05.2012, 19:32 0

hey akasoul,

theres some very good questions here so I'm going to try and approach this in a really organized way.

Spoiler

Estimated Equity:
- when we calculate our equity with equilab the output is very precise, but its only accurate if the hand ranges are accurate.
- Equity on the flop counts both the chance we improve on the turn and on the river.

Odds:
- Odds only count one street. This is the chance that we improve on the next card to come.

Converting Odds to equity:
- Things get a little fun here.

Calculating Equity using outs:
Equity = flop odds/remaining cards + [(turn odds/remaining cards) * (1-flop odds/remaining cards)]

In words, we take our chance of hitting on the turn and add that to our chances of hitting on the river multiplied by the chance that we actually have missed the turn. Its not so simple with a backdoor draw. I've calculated them separately, but this will give us a slight overestimation because some cards complete both hands.

P(hit straight) = 4/47 + (1-4/47)*(4/46)
P(hit straight) = 16.5%

P(hit flush) = 10/47*9/46
P(hit flush) = 4.2%

At this point its not perfect, but we can simply add them up.

P(hit hand) = P(hit straight) + P(hit flush)
P(hit hand) = 16.5% + 4.2%
P(hit hand) = ~20.7%

Now, this is roughly the chance we'll hit our hand. Its not the chance we'll hit AND win. As just one example, someone with a set has a 20% redraw if we spike our straight on the turn.

Using equilab accounts for redraws, counterfited hands, runner runner trips etc etc etc.

Now on the flop our GSSD+BDFD actually gives us 6 outs. a 2 card back door flush draw is always worth two outs. and our 4 straight outs are squeaky clean.

With a GSSD to the nuts we can call with implied odds of 7:1. This GSSD is an exception because we're on a rainbow flop. You can read about this in the silver odds and outs article. Our BDFD adds value to our marginal draw making our flop call profitable.

If for instance we had a two pair draw (5 outs) then we would need to fold the flop at 7:1 odds. We need 8.5:1 there.

Hopefully that answers your questions. If not feel free to drop by the live coaching just over an hour from now or reply.

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firsttsunami

Joined: 23.01.2006

Posts: 30,011

30.05.2012, 09:28 0

The reason why you achieved 2 different results is that if you put your hand into the EQuilab and you press "calculate" Equilab takes into consideration how likely it is to hit your outs from flop to turn and from turn to river. so equilab computes with 2 streets but obviously if you just count the chance from one to another street you achieve half the result, numerically.

Even with just 4,5 Outs you can peel the Flop with a nut-gutshot. Given your scenario it may happen that he's going to check down J9s 89s as he's afraid of getting called again by a pair or he checks back with a low pocketpair and you can realize your Outs and against Pocketpairs you still have 10 Outs.

Is your question answered?

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akasoul

Joined: 17.06.2007

Posts: 230

30.05.2012, 13:32 0

Its very clear thanks.

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