Hand Evaluation Coaching - Homework #36 27.05.12

Firstly, do we have any stats?

Now, normally I'm opening 4x FR in UTG because our range is stronger. On the flop we have really good equity so I'd bet bigger there for value ~$0.85. If he raises there 3way he almost always has a set. Our equity:

nl.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 6s7sJc
Equity Winst Split
MP2 25.56% 25.56% 0.00% { AsKs }
MP3 74.44% 74.44% 0.00% { JJ, 77-66 }

But that isn't too realistic because he can still do this with FD's our pair with FD... This is a wide range, the widest I can give him here:

nl.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 6s7sJc
Equity Winst Split
MP2 33.82% 33.82% 0.00% { AsKs }
MP3 66.18% 66.18% 0.00% { JJ, 77-66, QsJs, JsTs, 9s8s, 5s4s }

Even against this range it really isn't +EV to put the money in on the flop. Because we have huge implied odds vs his range my plan is to call his floprange and look for a spade on the turn.

If the spade comes my plan is to play ch/r. When the spade doesn't come it gets tough... The factors that are going to decide we call or not are the stacksize left and his betsize.

Hi,
the question is, is he a reasonable Player?
If he has the set, then our Equity is this:

Board: 7♠6♠J♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    25.56%  25.56%   0.00% { AsKs }
MP3    74.44%  74.44%   0.00% { JJ, 77-66 }

Hi gives us 18% on the flop, so we have too call! If he realy has set, the he has to raise bigger. I think, his range is wider.
Like this:

Board: 7♠6♠J♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    46.48%  46.48%   0.00% { AsKs }
MP3    53.52%  53.52%   0.00% { QQ-JJ, 77-66, QTs+, AJo, KJo }

I Would shove here, when we shove, we get 41% pododds, and we have 46%. If he raised us bigger at flop, i would prefer just to call, , because we have implied odds. If we dont hit our flush, we have to c/f at turn. If we hit, the c/r.

on the flop: we have to bet lager amount. As played I we do get good odds to call.

We don't know Villain, so we can't really assume that he flats with scs pre and since we have the nut fd we can't assume he raises with his draw either. So by re raising the only we achieve is to iso us vs a better range (Villain has no history for us also, so there isn't some dynamic to justify such a play).

On the turn If the spade wont come, I would check and call if get the correct odds. If hit the flush I think the c/r is the best option vs unknown, as he might also bluff the flush some of the times.

I think I would probably play passive after the first encounter at the flop (I would cbet a little more though). After co folds, I would just call.
On turn all depends on what comes, but I would mostly check and see.
With any draw he might check the turn and we get to see a free card with the best drawing hand.
If he is choosing to put lots of money into that pot, that is his choice (and who knows, he might even bet small enough on turn to give us good odds to call). He might be strong, or he might be bluffing, but I don't think this one is my spot to try to bully him out of the hand.

on flop it is posbible to just call his minraise, for given odds. Most often we are not having fold equity there because his minraise could indicate at least top pair. Unless he is doing that with hand like 89. If he minraises with flushdraw, there is no need to make him fold, even better is to keep a flushdraw, once he we both hit, we take his stack.

IF trying to force to fold a top pair and we plan to call, then I think its better to push - more fold equity, maybe he would fold weak top pair. After he reraises to allin, I guess we didn't have odds to call (dind't made calculations exact).

Edit: forgot that we call to see two cards, not the one with the last call, so odds might be correct.

Well... There is no stats, but since villain min raises on flop on such a drawy board, I would say that he is a bad player, and would do that with TP, or some pair+ draw, so we have 15 outs, and I would shove.
However, if he is a good player, I would prefer to call for given odds and reevaluate on turn.

"as played"
after my bet & his raise on the flop there is 3.03 in the pot & it's .66 to call.
so, I am getting almost 4.6:1 to call & draw to the nut flush.
since the odds of me hitting the flush are 4.22:1, I can call here.
it does not make sense (to me) to re-raise in the first place, and then call the shove when I'm on a draw and could be WAY behind.
if villain flopped set, I lose an out (J spade no good) and if I miss on the turn the turn card rank is no good for my flush.
If I make the flush on the turn, he has 6 boat outs and 1 quad out on the river.

I am a 3:1 underdog vs 66,77,JJ

but even if he just has something like A :heart:J or K :heart:J
I am 54-46 dog

against Q :heart:J or J :heart:T
I am only a small favorite (54:46) because my overcards are clean

but the "best case" is I am getting my stack in as a small favorite on a draw.

I hate the re-raise and then the call of the shove.

I think this would be better:
pre-flop, I would raise to .40 because of bad position and it being 8 handed.
post-flop I am raising to 3/4P to pot, representing made hand vs drawy board.

given that, pot is 1.35 on the flop
then I bet say 1.05 on the flop.
assuming he still min-raises to 2.10 and the CO folds,
the pot is now 4.50 and it's 1.05 to call.
I am getting ~4.28:1 to call, and my odds of turning the nut flush are 9/47, or 9:38 or 4.22:1 against (I think), so I can call.

and then we wait & see for the turn.

being OOP sucks!

First of all, I would openraise bigger from UTG: $0.40

As played on flop I would cbet around $0.80 to get value from some flush draws, gutshots, OESD, Jx hands. After his minraise I would put him on strong hand, because he called first in preflop (CO might have wider range, PP, SC, BW) and raised in 3way pot with one player behind - this move won't be bluff too often. Therefore I would put in his range sets, as we don't know him I would assume he doesn't have suited connectors like 8s9s too often from MP1 against UTG+2.

Board: 6♠7♠J♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    25.56%  25.56%   0.00% { AsKs }
MP3    74.44%  74.44%   0.00% { JJ, 77-66 }

Our equity is not great for 3betting and playing for stacks on flop and because he is giving us great odds for call, I would call on flop with plan to play passively to hit nutflush draw - our pot odds are 4.6:1, which is with nutflush draw enough.

I would reevaluate on further streets (considering odds). If we would hit, I probably would decide for ch/r, even on thirtd spade card he could put us on overpair QQ-AA and try to protect his hand against fourth spade.

cbet 3/4 pot on flop, chk/f turn if no help. I'm not trying to bully in a multiway pot with A high. We could be losing outs to villains hand , what if he has fl draw with Jx?
I give it up on that turn anyway unless I get a cheap card, but then my hand is face up on the river really, so do I get paid off.

Hello,

Preflop: As long we are almost always raising from UTG for value I'd do it 4x. Only reason to do it smaller if you also have a very loose range from UTG but for FR I doubt that.
Postflop: You have to CB a bit bigger, CBetting it too small may look the hand really weak and we want to avoid get raised. But furthermore going for the stacks isn't going to show you huge profit here cause if he has a very strong hand as 2pairs+ I doubt that you are having great equity. You have to be sure that he is capable of playing draws/Jx hands here aggressively to make such a shove ever profitable.

Best Regards.