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NL$5; AA tough turn vs. fish

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CO looks a fish, 72/11 over 37 hands, af=1.3.
So does SB (83/26 over 70+ hands)

CO posts blinds, so don't get confused.

Can I go broke on the turn?

I calculated the situation as if I faced a shove from him on the turn after my $1 bet. Hence, it's a $7.01 pot and I have to pay $3.25. We therefore need 32% equity.

I have used Ps equilator and it seems that If we give him this range

TT,88,A9s,K9s,Q9s,J9s,A9o,K9o,Q9o,J9o,T9o,QhJh,JhTh,Th9h,Th8h,9h8h,8h7h

it doesn't look like a profitable broke spot (we're getting ~31%).

Comments?

Thanks,
Matt

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.05(BB) Replayer
SB ($6.15)
Hero ($8.58)
CO ($5)
BTN ($6.08)

CO posts (SB) $0.02

Dealt to Hero A♠ A♥

CO calls $0.03, fold, SB raises to $0.10, Hero raises to $0.30, CO calls $0.25, SB calls $0.20

FLOP ($0.90) 9♠ 7♥ 2♣

SB checks, Hero bets $0.45, CO calls $0.45, SB folds

TURN ($1.80) 9♠ 7♥ 2♣ 9♥

Hero bets $1, CO raises to $2, Hero raises to $7.83 (AI), CO calls $2.25 (AI)

RIVER ($10.30) 9♠ 7♥ 2♣ 9♥ 7♣

Spoiler

CO shows 8♦ 9♦ (Pre 23%, Flop 23.2%, Turn 95.5%) Hero shows A♠ A♥ (Pre 77%, Flop 76.8%, Turn 4.5%) CO wins $9.62


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1 reply
veriz
Joined: 20.07.2008

Hello inlovewithamsterdam,

Preflop: You should be raising bigger vs min-raise.

As played
Postflop: I'd Bet the flop bigger and Bet/Fold the turn rather than go broke. The 9 ain't good card for us either and I doubt that the guy is just min-raising with total air. Usually would assume that he would even play more passively with just PP.

Best Regards.


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