75$ turbo MTT - ATo

river bet 500 /fold to shove

I dont think bet on the river is good.We cant take value from any weaker hand.

Hi all,

Originally posted by PaPi92
I dont think bet on the river is good.We cant take value from any weaker hand.

Agreed, call river as played. Lots of draws brick although we don't know what he does on the river with them.

Originally posted by PaPi92
I dont think bet on the river is good.We cant take value from any weaker hand.

i prefer bet on rievr vs unknow and imo thats best play=>pot control/bluf/value bet
he cna have all kind of hands cos he limp utg so...

when u dont bet villain can pot it on river and u end up guesing is he blufing or not + he will not shove made hands like 2pairs sets on river so u loose less when u bet then to check for bluff induce (pot control) / also he can fold sometimes AJ/AQ/AK (bluff) /from his perspective he can hero call with PP or A2/A8/A9 asuming that we have busted flush draw cos we 3 barel donk Axx on flush drawy board on scary rundown (value)

The thing with valuebetting, and this is a common mistake amongst tournament players, is that you almost always need to have at least 50% equity against his calling range. Even if you are going for thin value. Now can you honestly say that given the action, we have 50% against his CALLING range? Note that he's not calling missed flushdraws on the river nor is he calling mid pairs 3 times I believe.

Originally posted by chenny8888
The thing with valuebetting, and this is a common mistake amongst tournament players, is that you almost always need to have at least 50% equity against his calling range. Even if you are going for thin value. Now can you honestly say that given the action, we have 50% against his CALLING range? Note that he's not calling missed flushdraws on the river nor is he calling mid pairs 3 times I believe.

I dont think that we have 50% eq vs his caling range
But i'm sure that we will win pot when we bet on river more then 1/3 of time so we make profitable play with betting on river => cos when we check readlest with plan to call down imo we have negativ freroll in this spot...
As I say if we r planing to call imo is better just to bet descent sizing like 40-55% pot so we put our price ther for calling cos on long run we loose less and gain more.
Ex. He will probably bet something like 60-75% pot with 2pairs and sets when we check on river but very rearly raise on river with those stacks sizes

But when we check/call we can take from same bluffs(for exapmle missed flush draws) and will lose vs hands, which are better than ours, but vs these hands we will lose too, when we bet, because they will call or raise us.

Originally posted by PaPi92
But when we check/call we can take from same bluffs(for exapmle missed flush draws) and will lose vs hands, which are better than ours, but vs these hands we will lose too, when we bet, because they will call or raise us.

This!

i do not agree to this imo

villains willl fold some times some 2 pair hands or AJ+ = we win with worse hand

villains wont bet mised flush draws = we dont get any value from mised draws

villains wont bet PP with wich they will hero call some % of time= we miss value

we r paying BIGER price to get to showdown when we check instead of beting our self (cos if i understand corecly u r saying that hero shoud always call as played on river... )

... so readles vs unknown i prefer(think is best) bet(40-55% pot)/fold line on river

I do agree with TheRebuz here actually.

I also prefer bet/folding the river against unknown for the reasons he mentioned above.

Also when we check the river I guess he is never EVER betting his one paired Ax with which he may consider calling given that the club draw just missed. He may bet only AQ-AK if he is not raising em pre.

He may even hero call with some middle pairs like 88s, or 99s if he is playing em that way, and he is never betting here once we check.

I doubt he could fold better Ax in that spot but thats not a problem cuz we will lose less when we bet something like 400 instead of taking the check/call line and face a bet like this for example.

Thats a personal opinion.

no, if you think that then you check/fold

.

Originally posted by chenny8888
no, if you think that then you check/fold

Yep.

I think once we check, we are better of folding to a bet than calling, cuz the range he is betting as a bluff here is not that wide I guess.

Originally posted by noob3r

Originally posted by chenny8888
no, if you think that then you check/fold

Yep.

I think once we check, we are better of folding to a bet than calling, cuz the range he is betting as a bluff here is not that wide I guess.

Without further reads I really don't think this is true. Generally people love to try bluff these "scary" boards. There is 4 to a straight on this board. Given preflop action it's very tough for our villain to actually have a straight (and lots of people don't valuebet thinly enough either, with good Ax hands for example), so a bet is quite often a bluff.

Now if we know villain isn't the tight of player to bluff these situations, and we know he typically checks back missed flush draws, THEN we should check/fold. But basically we will struggle to find a specific villain against whom BET/folding is the best play.

@chenny
the thing here that u r missing is that villain is 17/11 limping utg so i dont think he has big imagination to call 2 streets with intention to bluff scary river

what range do u put villain on preflop and on flop?

2 unpaired clubs.

But if you don't think he's bluffing river, then we can just play check/fold.

Originally posted by TheRebuz
i do not agree to this imo

villains willl fold some times some 2 pair hands or AJ+ = we win with worse hand

villains wont bet mised flush draws = we dont get any value from mised draws

villains wont bet PP with wich they will hero call some % of time= we miss value

we r paying BIGER price to get to showdown when we check instead of beting our self (cos if i understand corecly u r saying that hero shoud always call as played on river... )

... so readles vs unknown i prefer(think is best) bet(40-55% pot)/fold line on river

If all your assumptions are right, then I think it's best to bet/fold. However I don't believe villain folds 2pair, and will not bet missed fd (if this was a live game I would totally agree with those assumptions)

From personal exp, c/c river. We can argue that based on his river size, he doesn't have AJ+. For me his range is KK-, missed FD, A4 and 44. ocasionally A7