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NL100 JJ calldown vs UTG reg

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Pkrpains
Joined: 04.10.2010

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($30.50)
Hero ($104)
UTG ($155)
UTG+1 ($91.62)
CO ($100)
BTN ($112)

Dealt to Hero J♦ J♥

UTG raises to $3, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $2

FLOP ($6.50) T♣ 3♦ 9♦

Hero checks, UTG bets $4.50, Hero calls $4.50

TURN ($15.50) T♣ 3♦ 9♦ 8♥

Hero checks, UTG bets $10.04, Hero calls $10.04

RIVER ($35.58) T♣ 3♦ 9♦ 8♥ 3♠

Hero checks, UTG bets $22.85, Hero ?

Villain is 25/21 reg, 17% Open UTG, AF3.2, 63% C-bet Flop, 67% Turn, 34% WTSD, 804 hands.

Now, 2 questions:

1. Is c/raising turn with OESD and shoving any river an option? We obviously turn our overpair into a bluff, but in villains shoes it's very hard to proceed with pretty much anything as we rep sets and twopairs really really well? I would expect him to fold overpairs.

2. As played, is river a call or a crying fold?


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2 replies
Paf4488
Joined: 24.11.2007

actually this hand seemed very interesting and i played with cardrunners ev calculator.
First of all, i put him on a range.

1) I assumed he raise 100% those hands: AA-22,AKs-ATs,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs,AKo-AJo,KQo
2) Added hands he opens 50% : -A9s-A7s,A5s-A2s,T9s,98s,87s,KJo
So in my example he opens from utg about 14% of hands.(actually 16%, but 4% of them 50%)

Actually i dont think villain is on a pure bluff on the turn. if this is very wrong assumption please correct me. Maybe sometimes he 2 barrels with kq, but i assumed he will bet turn only with straight, set, tp, 2p, overpair and fd.

So he have
straight - 3.92%
2p -3.94%
fd - 11.7%
TP - 19.2%
set- 24.1%
overpair - 37.2%

So what do you guys think is best line against such range? i think we can add about 5-10% bluff hands which he will fold facing agression.


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breena
Joined: 14.09.2010

Why did you not 3bet pre? Im always 3betting JJ in this spot unless vs nit but we look good Vs 17% range for sure.

I think the hand would of played alot easier like this.


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