265$ WCOOP Turbo Knockout - A6o EP

Fold, Axo EP sucks.

Hi all,

Originally posted by Bzzz2906
Fold, Axo EP sucks.

This. When we get called we're just too owned.

Err... ???

I don't know if I've ever seen a push/fold chart that tells you to fold any Ax with <7bb into 7 people. Given that this is a turbo, jamming slightly wider than a std MTT is generally advisable.

The only thing that would give me pause is the fact that its a KO. Very good regs will adjust their calling ranges based on bounties, but regs capable of doing this are very few and far between.

Originally posted by Semesa
Err... ???

I don't know if I've ever seen a push/fold chart that tells you to fold any Ax with <7bb into 7 people. Given that this is a turbo, jamming slightly wider than a std MTT is generally advisable.

The fact that this is a Turbo or a Regular doesn't change the cEV. You still want to take +EV decision. Sometimes it's better to take -EV spot, but i don't think it's the moment.

That's actually closer than it seemed. I would've thought it was closer to A8o+ here. I'm not personally a fan of taking a lot of -$EV spots cause I just think people call wider than they should as it is against EP raises.

The Cev of a situation is not the overall deciding factor, you also have to take into account future tournament equity based on hero's edge. If the increase in your stack size doesn't give you a good enough increase in edge compared to the negative effects of losing the hand.(if you bust the tournament, you don't have much of an edge in it)

In tournaments, the concept that pre-bubble should be pure Cev play is completely false. if we were playing pure Cev we would induce with 44-66 in a lot of rejam spots where its standard to just open jam(BTN with 20bb for example) The reason why open jamming is standard is because its a lower variance line, the positive effects of adding 20bb is not worth the negative effects of busting.

The other factor influencing jamming ranges is the KO bounty. This should always be taken into account.

The most +$ev play in my opinion in this spot is to jam. We will go through the blinds soon and given its a turbo tournament, chances are the blinds will also be going up. 6.8bb stack will become 5bb stack when you get to the BTN.

5bb at 200/400 is 2,000. If blinds go up on the hand where you have the BTN, you will have 4bb.(250/500 level)

Remembering that this is a KO tournament, the reduced fold equity from your jams with 4bb will probably be to the point of 0 fold equity.

If you jam here, you know you have decent equity, and will continue to have decent equity. If you don't, you are absolutely sure you have no fold equity in only 3 hands.

As an aside, the graph posted is based on completely unrealistic calling ranges.

According to your calling range, the player directly to hero's left will call his jam with KQs. Show me evidence that good regs have KQs in their calling range in that spot, let alone the average fish, then send me your stars user name and i'll deposit $100 in your account.

Note, I said in his calling range, not that you have seen him call it off once.

Bonus $50 if you can do it with KTs BTN calling range.... thats just ludicrous.

The fact that they call with hands like that doesn't actually adversely affect the EV of shoving with A6o, especially seeing as those hands are behind against A6o. This is just a really bad hand to have in your shove range IMO, you can add a fair chunk of other hands first before you start shoving A6o with so many players behind.

Absolutely, I would have those hands in my jamming range as well.

That doesn't mean I wouldn't also have A6 in it.

22+,A2s+,K4s+,Q7s+,J8s+,T8s+,97s+,87s,76s,A4o+,K7o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o,98o,87o

This is roughly my range in this spot.

edit: very roughly!!! I did this in about 10 seconds in pokerstove but it gives you a general idea

That just seems too loose in general and I think letting the blinds pass us is superior.

Guarantee'ing 2:1 odds for BB on our next jam is better than jamming A6o here?

If you have SnG wiz do you mind putting in rough calling ranges for people ahead and posting results of that?

I don't have it myself but I'm interested to see what the neutral CEV range of this jam is with some semi-accurate calling ranges.

How can you give a calling range when you know nothing about the 7 players?

They might be a shark or a fish or a nit or scared money...

So we just never shove coz we don't know if someone's calling range will be off by 2% of what we think it is?

you have to make assumptions about calling ranges, but even I can tell that the previously assumed calling ranges are completely off.

the thing here is that this is KNO and BTN as big stacak can call us(reshove) very light here

when all that said i probbly sigh shove all Ax,22+ most of Kxs all 2broadways cards and most of suted conectors and some of one/two gapers suted cards like Q9s/J9s/86s and stuff

Yeah, your range seems pretty solid.

You have to agree with me at least to a point if your range looks anything like that. I used the extreme scenario to make a point because everyone else was taking the other extreme. Their reasoning was so far from optimal that I needed to show the other extreme to get a point across.

When I do turbo coaching, one of the things I always tell my students is "If in doubt, shove" In turbos, faster blind levels means we don't have nearly as much time to wait around for good hands.

If you understand the idea of M value's, you will realise the concept doesn't make sense when you factor in the time limit of blind levels. an M of 10 doesn't mean you will survive another 10 orbits, because generally in turbos, blinds go up about once per orbit, in reg speeds, thats generally once per 3 orbits. In turbos, your "true M"(I made this concept up on the spot) is probably roughly 4/5ths of that in a reg speed.

An M of 10 in reg speed is roughly 8 in a turbo I would say.

It seems rediculous, but do the calculations using one of your turbo HH's and you will see that I'm right.

So yes, the dude that posted the SnGwiz graph was right, the CEV doesn't change, but the M does, and M is more important than CEV. CEV is a flawed concept due to changing blind structures.

Originally posted by Semesa
you have to make assumptions about calling ranges, but even I can tell that the previously assumed calling ranges are completely off.

You have the right to tell us the amazing calling range you would put for every villain.

oh come on...

You are saying that I'm being arrogant because I pointed out how flawed your reasoning was?

One of the most important aspects of HS MTT is knowing exactly how far you can edge pass. This relies on you having a pretty decent idea of exactly how good you are compared to another player. There is no room for ego.

I'm not saying this to be arrogant, I'm saying this because I can clearly see that I'm better than most of the players in this thread just based off their assumptions(my understanding of jamming and calling ranges means I have a better idea of what ranges are +ev and what ranges are not, I'm not claiming to be a superior poker player, merely superior in this spot specifically)

Can someone who has a decent hold-em manager database AND regularly shoves A6 in this spot please use the following filters and paste their results...

Go to reports>Tournaments>positions tab. Use the filters:
"tournament stack in bb between 6 and 8"
"Hole cards = A6o, A6s"
"Antes in play = true"

And post a screenshot

Mine is 91bb/100 hands, and 15.7EVbb/100 hands from EP. However this is only over a 13 hand sample.

If enough people post with a decent enough sample size, and the avg result is >0.00 Its a pretty good indicator that its +ev.

I'm not saying you're arrogant, just that you dont give any calling range even though you're complaining about cEV ranges.

And we're absolutely not talking about Axs, only Axo. A2o-A6o.

I'm buying and installing SNGwiz now, I'll define exact calling ranges per villain based on every single piece of information available in this thread and i'll post my results.

The problem is, I've given an answer without defining calling ranges ONLY because I've already internalized calling ranges to such a point that I can instinctively look at a situation and know with a decent amount of accuracy what the correct jamming range is.

Its a skill you pick up from experience and study.

If you look down and see AA, you instinctively know that folding is absolutely not the right option(preflop)

If you see KK, there could be a very slight chance that a situation will arise where you will fold

If you see 23o, you instinctively know you should fold.

This is all based on your previous experience playing poker, knowing what is good and what is bad without actually having to think of every variable that could happen.

As you progress, you will be able to do this with a far more accurate range.

I know A6o is a jam here in the same way I know I shouldn't fold AA preflop.

I'll prove it as soon as I figure out how to use SnGwiz. Previously, I've done all of my calculations using pen, paper, and pokerstove.

EDIT:

picture hosting

Not sure if I've set up SNG wiz right as this range is actually wider than I originally assumed.

Your calling ranges are pretty tight.
For example SB, you give him 9.2% - 66+,ATs+,KQs,ATo+
Do you think, that a good reg will fold hands like A8s,44,KQo,KJs, hands which have nearly 48% equility vs our pushing range.
Some of the other calling ranges are very tight too.