Originally posted by PaPi92
Your calling ranges are pretty tight.
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I think intuitively if a program is telling you to push 63% with 7 players left to act in a bounty tournament, there are going to be some fundamental flaws with the modelling. I'm going to do an analysis now.
Anyway this is what I've gotten so far, with a couple basic assumptions about ranges. Here's Nash.
And SNG Wizard analysis:
Basically the most important flaw with your analysis (at least regarding why we shouldn't push A6o) is that it didn't account for overcall ranges. A6o isn't actually that bad a hand if overcalls were especially rare, as HU it doesn't do too poorly vs loose-ish ranges. However once people start overcalling correctly, we get really owned. Also, I think in general the call ranges were a bit tight in Semesa's analysis. You also have ICM effects in play here, whereas in this situation it's possibly the reverse of ICM tax (bounty equity promotes more gambling rather than less).
In my analysis I've also taken the liberty of modifying some of the bigger stacks as they don't need to commit themselves, and so their range is going to be a bit wider.
It appears as if pushing isn't unreasonable (IMO still worse than folding), however keep in mind that my analysis isn't totally complete, and we're not really getting any wider calls yet to account for the bounty. I think if we did a full analysis with slightly better ranges we'll find that folding here and possibly letting the blinds pass us is superior.
cool. So as long as the BB reliably calls with J9s I know not to jam A6o UTG.
Forgive me if I continue to do this(and make money from it) in future.
if you remove j9s (as well as other hands that we beat/are flipping with) from bb's calling range it won't change the EV i think.
A good reg can easily call with J9s. He needs 39% eq to call. This tournament is bounty, I don`t know what is the starting stack, because this is important to know, how wider can we call for the bounty. But maybe with the bounty he needs nearly 35%.
Originally posted by PaPi92
Your calling ranges are pretty tight.
For example SB, you give him 9.2% - 66+,ATs+,KQs,ATo+
Do you think, that a good reg will fold hands like A8s(most of the time),44(no),KQo(most of the time),KJs(yes), hands which have nearly 48% equility vs our pushing range.
Some of the other calling ranges are very tight too.
imo
and btw
Originally posted by PaPi92
A good reg can easily call with J9s. He needs 39% eq to call. This tournament is bounty, I don`t know what is the starting stack, because this is important to know, how wider can we call for the bounty. But maybe with the bounty he needs nearly 35%.
i realy dont agree with this, find a good reg that calls with that stack in bb, without big history vs hero with J9s
and btw OP doesnt say anuthing about villains so we can asume that all r unknown
Why do you think that they will fold these hands? Vs reg I will snap call J9s fr BB and this is very profitable. Most of the regs will do the same.
And from SB, for example KJs, which you say that the regs will fold, is very easy call.
If the starting sack is 3k chips, the bounty is 20%(from the buy in) and BB need 39% to call, with the bounty he can call profitable with nearly 33/34%.
Originally posted by PaPi92
Why do you think that they will fold these hands? Vs reg I will snap call J9s fr BB and this is very profitable. Most of the regs will do the same.
And from SB, for example KJs, which you say that the regs will fold, is very easy call.
If the starting sack is 3k chips, the bounty is 20%(from the buy in) and BB need 39% to call, with the bounty he can call profitable with nearly 33/34%.
what is your pushing range in hero spot?
Here I push 22+ A2s+, A5o+, maybe without A6o, it depends, K7s+, KTo+, Q8s+, QTo+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s.
Against tight weak opponents I can push a bit wider.
Hi all,
Originally posted by PaPi92
Here I push 22+ A2s+, A5o+, maybe without A6o, it depends, K7s+, KTo+, Q8s+, QTo+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s.
Against tight weak opponents I can push a bit wider.
I think it's too many Axo here and not enough Kxs, Kxo, lower suited connectors.
im pushing this range in this spot and feeling no regrets imo
22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, 54s, A2o+, K2o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 98o
(maybe folding the btn of this range)
Originally posted by TheRebuz
im pushing this range in this spot and feeling no regrets imo
22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, 54s, A2o+, K2o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 98o(maybe folding the btn of this range)
What he said.
Hi all,
I mean it's just a question of how often we're getting called in this day and age. And IMO in 2012, in a (soft) 265$ tournament, that is too often.