Win A Seat in My Seminar!

First of all good luck to everyone! This is an awesome opportunity, thank you very much PS!

Preflop: standard call. Without knowing more specific details about
the preflop raiser by 3betting we may end up in a bad situation too
often given that Player1 is so loose. Bloated pot without fold equity
and without showdown value out of position it's not the way to make
money. So calling is to me the best option, keeping the pot small, and
still having a lot of implied odds thanks to the maniac.

Flop: We can't fold given the assumptions about Player1.
We have 2574€ on the flop and player6 covers us, 12 SPR. With so much
money behind we are facing huge reverse implied odds. With the dead
money already in the pot I don't mind taking the pot righ now and my
preferred play would be to raise small,to 400-450€. He is capable
of calling worse hands (overcards+backdoor flush draw, gutshots +random)
and we may induce spewy 3bets if he is that crazy with overcards,
65,75,54,89,8T,T9,etc. Against AA we still have 34% equity, and 50% against
overs+FD. So I think it's a good spot to stick it in and try to induce.

If he only calls my small raise I'd value bet 8,7,5,2,6,4 turn and check
other cards to call his river bet 100%.

As played, we can't really give this player a hand range. Probably
his preflop actions are random, 3betting by feeling, and slowplaying
big hands, so there is no bad river. No river would put us below 40%
equity probably so getting 2:1 on a river pot bet we should call 100%.

We don't have to look at our range here to know if we are being
exploited or not, this is not a GTO problem, because he is playing
exploitative and bluffing more than GTO says, we should call with
100% of bluffcatchers.

preflop is super standard.

on the flop player6 is clearly check/folding so i feel like we should go for immediate value by raising vs the fish.

.. but we called. on the turn we have the best hand most of the time, but so many shitty rivers might come, so i'd just shove here.

I would fold the flop becouse I moneyscared.

Hey Dusty, here are my thoughts on the Hand.

preflop ist standard to me.

given the read that villain bets 100% vs missed cbet i do think its possible that the initial PFR plans on check/raising that flop. i wouldnt want to raise the fish and have to face a call or cold3bet by the PFR.
Furthermore we have pretty good EQ vs the fishes range to call (we need 33%), which contains alot overcards,FDs,BDFD,GS, random air - so basically a bit of everything. but for a raise (for what we need 50%+ to be +ev) its waay too thin. we can realize our edge better by calling and playing IP, istead of getting our money in vs a fish to basically flip.

There is´nt alot difference on the turn. the T added a few toppairs and flushdraws, but vs his calling or brokingrange we still "only" have slightly more then 50% - easy to call but it gets "thin" if we consider a raise (or a shove with that stacksizes)

Hard to make up a range vs a random fish but here´s my try

If that guy is just klickin buttons its just hard to make up a realistic range, just because his real range contains alot of random hands as well.

According to his huge range there isnt really a river we can not bluffcatch when he pots it again. (which would be an all in for him)

Jip, thats my thoughts on the Hand. Hope my english isnt too bad

i should take a stab at this contest.

well, nice to meet you guys!
I`m from the PT forum.
My name is Fernando and I am a micro~mid stakes player on PS, with nick: boorahara.

I`m not going to read any stuff that was written before, just because I want it to be my personel analisys. I don`t wanna try to win anything with other`s knowledge.

well, thats all I could think for now, Thanks a lot for the opportunity!

Fernando

Ok guys.

I def don't have time now, to update my comment (i wont update rather i will create a new comment, and correcting typos, unfinished sentences:D sorry everybody, just dont want to "out" from the contest because of the updating:/).

So i will do the create a post with math also (new), when get to office at ~8:30 pm...

Good night all,
L.

I mean... I hope, i will have time for it:/

I'm going to try to keep this as simple as possible.

Preflop Options:

Fold:
-gains us no money, loses no money

Call
-we have great position as we see what the PFA does and what Player 1 does before we act.
-we have great implied odds. Even if we hit a bare fluhsdraw or a bare open ended straight draw, vs player 1 our pair outs might be good quite often and cards that we can continue on profitably. Also of course we have insane profitability from hitting our draw. The few times that we flop huge (10% or so) we are also quite likely to stack somebody (esp Player1).
->call is profitable and therefore>fold

3bet
-you didn't specify any stats on the preflop raiser but I can't see how 3betting can ever be better than calling this hand, given that call is so profitable, especially because Player 1 is unlikely to fold preflop and can just donk-pot-bet in a 3bet pot also making life quite hard for you with the 3bet pot SPR and the lack of reads in 3bet pot (also if you have 8high, you will be forced to simply fold, allowing his bet to be very profitable)

=> Call is the best option preflop

Flop Options:

Fold
-gains us no money, loses no money

Call
-possibly but very unlikely calling gives Player6 the opportunity to make a move at the pot to which you will be forced to fold
-loses some money if Player 6 was trapping with an overpair or set, knowing that Player 1 will bet, but less than if we raise the flop
-gives Player 1 the opportunity to bet all turns with 100% of his range. As this range will still be very airheavy on many turns and from your description Player1 is likely to bet almost his complete range on most turns this has to be seen as a huge advantage of calling the flop. Not only are we getting money in good on the flop vs Player1, but also we give him the oportunity to make an even bigger mistake on many turns allowing us to continue with the hand on every turn (vs an approximation of his range our equity will be 50% or higher on every turn card. It will never be below 40%, even if we are more pessimistic about his range).
-call is profitable since not only have we lots of equity on the flop but also we can realise that equity quite well on most turns and even have implied odds if we hit strong or if the board runs out in a way that we can call down vs his bluffs

Raise
-gets some equity to fold, but mostly low equity hands, that would bluff the Turn, if we call, so this is rather a minus than a plus
-(probably) gets very little money from worse hands
-compared to calling it loses more money to better hands on the flop
-loses more money than calling the times that Player6 is actually trapping with a strong hand (as it's unlikely he will fold an overpair or better for 100bbs)

-Probably raising is profitable, as we do have some foldequity, but if it is, it has to be the 2nd best option, given call has so many advantages and so few disadvantages and seems hugely profitable.

=> Call Flop is the best option.

Turn Options:

Our Equity vs his likely betting Range:

Board: 6♠7♣4♣ T♠
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    61.54%  59.69%   1.85% { 8h7h }
MP3    38.46%  36.62%   1.85% { TT-22, AQs-A7s, A5s-A2s, K7s+, K5s, Q8s+, J8s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, AQo-A7o, A5o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T8o+, 98o, 87o }

Fold:
-gains no money, loses no money

Call:
-lets him realise his equity cheaper than if we would raise (but as he is likely to shove Rivers either way it's only a very small minus argument if any)
-looks like it puts us in "tough" Riverspots, but really it doesn't, in fact it puts us in a lot of very good Riverspots
-> According to Equilab on Rivercards we have about 40% Equity or higher vs his Turn Betting Range. Given our reads he is unlikely to give up pure bluffs on Rivers but from population tendencies we know, that it is possible that he checks a value hand better than ours on some rivers making his River-Range even more air-heavy. That means we have an easy call vs his shove on all Rivercards.

Raise (Push Turn):
-he folds hands with low equity that he would have bluffshoved on rivers otherwise (huge minus)
-he might fold some Fluhsdraws that have good Equity vs us, but these are also hands that will brick most Rivers and that he will bluff, if we only call, so it's no advantage of raising the Turn
-all better hands call
-lots of worse hands fold

=> Call Turn is the best option

Riverplan:

As explained above, we have good enough Equity to call his shove on every Rivercard. Arguments for folding if certain cards hit e.g. clubs ,can be disregarded. For one I don't think he cares, he will just shove if he has air. Furthermore I think he might check a lot of valuehands better than ours on clubs, making his Range more airheavy making an even stronger argument for calling his shove.

Even if he shoves all valuehands better than ours on all Rivers we can call and feel ok about it on the "bad" cards. On good cards we're obviously feeling great about it :).

Ended up not being as simple, but i tried to factor in some minor points also as you asked to explain the entire thought process.

I guess the simple/summarised version would be: call pre because with the implied odds and the position it's a clear +EV option whereas 3betting isn't.

On Flop calling has to be +EV vs his 100% bet when checked to, especially with the gutshot that will allow us to call some turnbets also and get to the river with our pair.
Rasing might be also +EV because of foldequity but there is no good reason why it should be more +EV than calling as we're assuming his bad overaggro frequencies will let us profitably call future streets so that we can realise our equity reasonably well.

On the Turn shoving might be +EV but similary to the flop there is little arguement why it might be better than calling. Even though 3/3 times riverbarrel is a small sample, chances if he barrels this river also and then has 4/4 riverbarrel is that he has some sort of a bluffrange so we won't really make big mistakes calling river. Even on marginal rivers i think we should call, as folding unlike calling might actually be a big mistake (we only need 30% equity to call river!)

So that being said on Rivers we just go ahead and call him down. Our main profit will come from the good rivercards but we might also make some small profit on bad ones depending on how thin he valueshoves and how much he bluffs.

Very nice promotion dusty, and good luck reading all the posts !!!(i read only a few and got bored really fast)

Hand related

Preflop: i think calling is the best option since we have absolute position and our hand plays decent in multy-way pots(especially against fishes).

Flop: When i first saw the hand i kinda liked hero's line, but after an equilab analysis, i now strongly recomand raising the flop for value and fold equity. I'm a huge fan of letting agro maniacs bluff their money off, but in my opinion this isn't the best spot to do it. Of course we are miles ahead of his range when he bets the flop but going on bluff catching mode for 3 streets when the board will most likely get uglier and uglier with every card is not my favourite line(as played the river will be a very hard spot and if we stack off and are beat, the fish might leave the table or tighten up and will be very hard to make a profit, so i prefer to not get in very tricky spots with the fish). If we raise the flop the range that the fish will continue with is(i assumed a relatively tight staking off range for the villain, but the wider his range the better since we will have a better equity in case of an all-in on the flop) :

images

So, when we raise since the approximated range that he continues with is 11.5% out of the VPIP of 58%, it results that he will fold 4 out of 5 times (4*420$=1680$ the cases when he folds), and when we will call we'll still have 44,81% equity which is a very profitable staking off on the flop taking into account the fold equity (+ our equity can be even higher if our opponent stacks off lighter). If he just call the flop i'll put him on a draw and call/shove any turn except clubs and probably 3,8 and T.

As played i would probably call most of the river since we will get better than 2:1 and his barreling frequency on the river is very high. I probably still fold on clubs and 3 or 5 for the following reasons:
1)this cards might hit his draws
2)after i call flop and turn he might put me on draws and might not bluff them, being afraid that those cards improved my hand
3)if i'm wrong i'll double up the fish and, will be very hard for me to get my money back or make a profit (i prefer to be patient and wait for better spots since against this opponent is very likely to get value when you hit).

p.s: this is only a rough approximation, and i took the 58% VPIP into consideration, since we haven't been provided the CO stats for villain(in which the cold call stat would be very useful since this kind of opponent i believe is more likely to raise a lot, but cold call in position a smaller range containing pocket pairs,suited connectors, suited aces and a few broadways, which would be a lot less than 58% VPIP, thus affecting our estimated fold equity on the flop)

Hi Dusty! Hi guys!

Sry for my english is preety weak. Pre we don't need a huge pot so call is seem standard to me. In the flop we just call because, he can pot every card what comming and we had an easy calldown, but not in this turn. We have the best hand very often at the turn but we don't dismiss a possibility of he has some equity in this point, and if he has he does never ever folding. So we need to shove the turn for value and protection.

GL everybody!!!

hello

so the preflop play with 78s i dont mind its ok because i got position against my oponents

flop comes 647not a bad flop now the preflop raiser doesnt contibets and checks to player 1 who is a verry agresive player and got a 100% bets when checked to him so he bets 210 (pot size) thats nothing new he could have anything and i would just cal here against that player and because player 6 could plan a check raise before because he knows player 1 is gona bet
so calling is the right thing i think

the turn is a interesting 10 know player 1 makes a big bet 630 again pot size
i think that bet whe cant just call there if whe wana play here whe should
go allin against that player and try to take it right there because our hand could be the best and we dont wana make tough decisions on the river and if our hand is not good enough whe still got some outs

sry for my english

shove T unless:

A, u re a masochist and find huge EVhappiness in swearmode selftalk on R of why u didnt shove T
B, u are sure opp has super high 3barell R bluff freq (which doesnt quite fit description)

folding T is terrible w the read we already have and PF/F are superstandard and w no other reads should be most +ev, although if just 100bb deep r F is for sure a strong option; calling T would be a longrun option in case knowing some frequencies of the guy and caring abt protection our perceived ranges on R + if he had not bloated the pot ashe has, where the pot/dead mon is alraedy massive. (if the bets are 2x 2/3 instead; its possible, tho i prolly still prefer just r/c in that case coz randoms w 60%vpip are not well known for folding much until R)

shoving T is sweet coz:
1, even when called we are 60:40 fav at very least; coz of so many of OCs+fd or pair+str8draw hands on the board which the guy is NEVER potting on T and still folding. NEVER! tbh i wouldnt be surprised in slightest if he just calls us w some random pair or just pure OCs putting us on "some draw".
2, our hand needs legite eq share protection unless B above is true
3, no playability issues on R vs unknown freq
4, we have position on the guy and dont mind some variance unless the stack is our full roll + we build positive dynamics in case he folds and starts doubting his play w some random equity hand; increase in EV of tableplay

We have no more information on villain, no vpip/pfr by position, no betting frequenzies etc. So we can only go by some simple math:

His range:

22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T2s+,92s+,82s+,72s+,62s+,52s+,42s+,32s,A2o+,K7o+,Q7o+,J8o+,T8o+,98o,87o,76o,65o

Our equity on the turn: ca. 82%

Our stack on the turn: 1734$

Pot on the turn: 1890$

If he checks the river, we check behind. If he jams river, we are getting a little more than 2:1, so we have to be ahead 33% of the time to make a profitable call. Given the fact, that on the turn he has at best 9 outs probably closer to 6 or less. Considering his tendency for triple-barreling it is a definite call on the river.

Hi!

Call flop, bacasue of the read.

Call turn, because of the read.

If he checks on the river, I check behind
If he jams on the river, I call.

Knowing only that villain bets 100% when checked to him, i would like to keep his whole range (58 VPIP) in and therefore call down on all 3 streets no matter what happens. It could be that the ugliest cards on turn and river are the best for his bluffing range too. We could raise/ gets it in on flop too, but I think without knowing any other stats or reads about the villain our most expected value come from calling him down. If we would be aware of any other reads or stats (e.g. how maniac remains after get a raise on flop or fold to flop raise) than maybe it would change my gameplan supposing its more + EV.

Hi everyone,

Preflop, we have an opportunity to see a flop in position with a hand which plays extremely well in a multiway pot. We could quickly check the blinds' squeeze% but since the PFR is opening MP we may get a bit of positional protection here. Besides, the fact there's already a fish involved should make the blinds more reluctant to bluff squeeze as they would often have to play a huge pot out of position against a fish who pots every streets if checked to. Squeezing ourselves seems just so awkward as we probably don't have much fold equity against player 1 and anyways 78s plays just so much better in small pots in position.

On the flop, we hit top pair almost no kicker + a gutter. The PFR checks on this very dangerous board. Even if he knows CO is betting every time he's checked to, can he be sure he will bet any two here knowing we are still left to play ? That seems a bit suicidal to check here with a good value hand, planning a check/ raise. Moreover, PFR may not want to c/r hands like TT or even AA, as he would be quite in a shitty spot if he gets played back and shoved over. If he has a set or DP, that could be pretty standard and safe to bet/ broke here. Most of the time he'll just be called and make value and just keep betting on most turn cards. Therefore when PFR checks, I think he's giving up a big percentage of the time, maybe planning a raise with combo draws mostly.
Now CO pots, which is what we expected quite a bit. We can't really put him on a range here, as he seems to be clicking on buttons, but we should still make the assumption that he will probably always be betting with some kind of equity whilest he may sometimes be scared to do so without any equity since we are still left to play and the board is so connected. On this board however, almost any hand has catched a little something, which makes it pretty hard for us to get a read on his hand. So every time CO would check, that would probably be hands with very few equity like Ah2h, QdTh, As9d... Basically just overcards. What I want to say here is that offsuit overcards are probably the safest non-out cards (except the 2h) for us since they are slightly less likely in CO's flop betting range.
So now CO pots and we have to make a decision. A fold is just out of question with the strengt of our hand and the reads we have. If we raise, we could just take the pot right away and prevent CO from bluffing us on future scare cards. We wouldn't make him fold many better hands especially since he seems fishy and there's probably not that many worse hands that would call us, and even if he calls us with a worse hand, we can't know what his outs really are and may commit ourselves in a big pot with an awkward hand. Thus, raising here seems just like a raise for info as we're not value betting nor bluffing. We can't even say we are protecting our hand since a huge part of his continuing range will have a very good equity against us, we may not even be favorite, so what's the point with protecting our hand when we have 35% equity ? Finally, we can't know if our hand is best or not right now, but we for sure have a very decent equity almost whatever CO holds (gutshot and DP+ outs). Thus raising and taking a risk to get reraised all in is just non-sense as it would stop us from realizing our equity. Calling is the only viable option.
Of course, we'll have to be ready to make courageous hero calls on later streets on many blank cards.

The turn is an offsuit Ten and CO pots again. If we still follow our reads, we expected vilain to bet almost any turn. Moreover, an offsuit overcard is probably one of the less likely card vilain could hit. If we called on the flop, we definitely don't want to fold here. First, vilain may think the ten is a good bluff card. Since we didn't raise the flop, we probably don't have DP+, combo draws or FD+ overcards (though a 58/40 vilain may not be good enough to understand this). There's not that many overpairs we could have since we would have squeezed preflop, so what we could have is some top pairs, pair+ weak draw, oesd, small FD we didn't want to broke flop (though I don't see many combos here). Besides the ten of spade opens a new FD which he may consider as good bluffing outs on the river, making him even more likely to bluff here. Considering all this, it becomes quite hard to fold, especially since we still have decent equity when behind.
Now the pot is quite big. If we raise all-in we are risking about 2300 to win 1260, so we have to be good less than 2/3 of the time.
If he hand-reads well (or is a CS) he may call rather light as we're not repping much (the fun part is we might be value betting sometimes against hands like 5s7s). Then if he's calling with any pair of 7+ hand we would have about 25% equity when called whilest the pot odds are about 44% (2300 to win about 5200). We thus need about 50% of fold equity for a shove to be ev+ (since I suck at maths I might be wrong somewhere). Honestly considering vilain's range and tendencie to bluff, it's definitely possible that we have that fold equity, but I wouldn't bet we do have much more which makes that move probably quite EV0. If you don't feel confortable with hero calling on many river, then you should probably shove rather than call. Personnally, I feel like calling is just a bit more EV+, because of vilain's wild range and his tendencie to triple barrel those spots with apparently any two.

On the river, it seems like we expect vilain to shove about 100% of the time. There's about 1600 left in a pot of 1900 so if vilain shoves we'll have more than a 2 to 1 pot odds. We'll have an esay call everytime we hit DP+. We should probably also call any non-clubs overcard according to our reads on the flop. On a 4,6 or Ten doubling, vilain is less likely to have one of those so I guess I would call too even though it looks like bad bluffing cards. A deuce is a total blank so I would call too. We're left with the threes, clubs and spades. Since spades is a backdoor, giving only 4% more equity on the flop, it would had been more interesting for vilain to barrel with overcards so sometimes he might have considered checking the flop with his backdoor (giving up) which makes him less likely to have it but much more likely to bluff it, so I would call as well. If a clubs hit, it obviously is a scare card he would always bluff. Many fish tend to value less thinly there as they are often scared by the flush and don't see much value with a top pair whilest they should value thinly for balancing. Since we assumed from the begginning vilain tends to be aggressive (3 barrels when checked to) and fishy (58/40) and we are given good pot odds, I guess calling is EV+ too. If a 3 hits on the river, well I really don't like this card but he also is going to bluff it a lot, so I'm fine with a call too. If the 3 of clubs hits, well then maybe I would fold since it completes almost every draw. Otherwise I think most rivers give us some good calls which even if sometimes slightly EV-, allow us to take more accurate notes on vilain, and anyways, doubling the fish right to our right is not the worst case scenario ever, providing he keeps playing on the table.

A possibility I didn't talk about is vilain checking the river. I've to admitt that in this case I'm not sure what I would do, but that's why I definitely need this coaching with Dusty

Thanks for reading.

First I would put the villain's range in any conector(suited or not) or AX KX or (22+) wich is a very large range to be sure of his hand.

On the pre-flop the call is a god choice because we are in position and 78s is better to play when you have a multiway pot.

On the flop by the player analisis he definitly will play agressive with any thing, and its possible that he raised beacuse no high card(A,K,Q,J) apeared at the flop, so he bluffs because the pre-flop agressor has showed him self at least a little Tight or passive(maybe both) until now.
In these case we can't tell much by he's bet size because until now he showed himself a lot agressive pos-flop.

So on the flop we hit a top pair with gutshot draw and I would call first because he's probably bluffing and also because we have 9 outs 2 for three of a kind 3 for two pairs and 4 of the gutshot.

in the turn we now have a double gutshot draw wich means that now we have 13 outs and if he had two clubs card his chance two win now are worst and at this point i would go all in because just call will be two many chips lost to still have to make a difficult decision at the river, i think our fold equity is good if he has a over pair, and even when he pays, our chances to win the pot is not so lower.

Is there a beer fridge in the hotel room ? Also do we have to come to the seminar ?

Roo

Hi everyone, after this call on the turn, i think you never gone fold any more, tou are playing with a nerly maniac, and you have a middle pair and a double gutshot with two clean outs four eatch gutshot, so if you get one of your outs on river, you may chip all his money, if not, you are ahead of him for many times.
Regards.