So we know he is a maniac and seems very shove happy on the river, basically going balls out when checked to.
When he pots turn we have a decision, the pot is 1260 (63 bb's), and we have (128bb - 3 - 10.5 = 114.5 bb's left),
1) If we call the turn 31.5 bb bet, river will be 94,5 bb's, and we will have 83 bb's effective.
* a lot of river cards are really nasty on this board texture, and against this type of play calling turn and folding river is probably a mistake, considering how wide he is.
* calling turn and calling river, could be very tilting as well, for me personally losing a big pot against a player like this tilts me quite hard, so from a personal point of view this is something to consider for me, but obviously this is very player dependant.
* There is an advantage where we do have position on him, which is an important factor, he has shoved 3/3 rivers so far, but in theory that could have been anything, and the sample size hasn't been indicated, which would be a major factor, but I am continuing to assume that the sample size is relevant enough that this player is in fact a 58/40 with 100% bet when checked to stat and shoving 3/3 rivers.
Now calling does have merits for that by calling we keeping his range widest, and by raising the turn we may fold out things that we are ahead of, and isolating ourselves against hands that either have us beat or have some equity.
But on the other hand, picking up the pot right now is also a good result.
To answer the question:
What line do we like best?
1) I personally prefer to shove the turn, reasons being I think we are ahead of his range, I think he calls with any 5x, any FD(clubs and spades), could possible call with any 8x, any 9x, obviously he will also call with some better hands. AND I think he folds a lot which is a good result for us as well, our hand isn't strong enough to allow him to see a river card on his terms in my opinion.
Added to that the guess factor and possible tilt factor that comes into play when calling turn and calling river on certain cards and us being wrong. His range is so wide that we have no idea what river cards hit him and what doesn't, you can argue well I am folding on clubs or spades because that hit his range, but in reality any card higher than a 7 hits his range some % of the time and puts him ahead of us, doing EV calculations here doesn't matter, because you can't give him an accurate range at all.
If we play the same as hero whats our plan on what rivers?
2) I think if we play the same as hero, we just have to close our eyes and call the river, there is just no way you can just call this turn to fold any river given the reads we have on this player, calling turn and folding river is going to be very close to burning your money. You have no idea of knowing what card helps his range and what not, you don't know whether he shuts down with air, whether he continues to shove if he for example rivers an A, we simply have no idea.
So yeah playing as hero did, coming to the river I hate life and close my eyes and call.
Who plays flop differently?
3) I don't, I think flop play is fine, and definitely the best play, we don't know how he reacts to raises yet apparantly, and we kind of want that next big bet in on the turn with his wide range, call too keep his range wide, and keep his bluffing frequency up. Also we are not closing the action on the flop, the original preflop raiser could be trapping himself just as well (as he should) therefor raising the flop in my opinion is out of the question.
Who plays turn differently?
4) Already mentioned I prefer shoving the turn for the following benefits:
* Picking up the pot now is a good result.
* We are ahead of his range.
* Villain can call us with worse hands.
* We have done our trapping with our medium value hand, but we should not forget the real value of our hand is coming to the turn, the value of our hand from turn to river will vary a lot from being a medium value type hand on the turn, to being a low value bluff catcher on the river.
Calling to bluff catch the river with a weak bluff catcher, when villain will be able to bluff with better hands, and calling the turn to fold the river, both I think are not good results.
Conclusion:
I think our relative hand strength is too weak to continue check/bluffcatch his extreme bluffing frequencies, I think us shoving and him folding is a good result, and I think he can call with worse hands given his playertype so far.
I also think the immediate results of being wrong in our weak bluff catcher calling down turn AND river on a psychological level, often get overlooked. If we are a winning 10/20 player, and we are force to take a break if we are wrong doing this, or that we even get slightly minorly tilted because of this hand in a situation where edges are small (vs other regs), I think we should also take these things into consideration our future EV in this game running with this fish, our future life EV for the rest of our day, etc.
Shove turn