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Open straight draw with large pot ($1 6handed)

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Sorry I'm not using stats so I have to write this myself.

I have t3700, SB has t3000 and blinds are 75/150.

I minraise with KJ from the BTN, I get min 3bet from the SB and call.
Flop comes TQ8 rainbow (pot is 1000)
SB checks, I bet 1/2 pot (t500), SB 3bets (t1000).

I have about t3000 left, very far from the bubble..... what should I do?


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2 replies
gawdhelpus
Joined: 13.04.2011

Sorry for long post, I've drunk a tonne of brews this morning!

As an odds problem it seems borderline, the SB is telling you that you were beaten before the flop and on the flop, so you are likely drawing against a made hand. Given the medium-short stack sizes you do not get paid well for your gamble in this ugly spot.

The real questions you have to ask yourself are what were you trying to achieve with your bets earlier on in the hand?

1. Your preflop bet looks like an attempted blind steal. When you were unable to steal the blinds why did you call the 3 bet? Was it to leverage your position? Was it because the villain offered you favourable pot odds? Was it because you thought you still had a better hand? Is the villain a LAG who routinely 3bets a wide range? Is the villain a fit/fold player who will fold if you breathe on the flop?

2. When you bet the flop was it a value bet in order to extract value from a worse hand? Was it a bluff to encourage a better hand to fold? Was it a semi-bluff to regain the initiative in the hand and put you opponent on the back foot?

My opinion is that your bet preflop was profitable, the call pre was defensible but unprofitable (given stack sizes and KJ clashing with his likely range) and the bet post flop was a losing play. The villain has already told you he likes his hand so to try and regain the initiative is too risky when you have the option of a free draw at 8 outs to a straight.

Against low stakes players any flop that comes down KQx J10X KTx, QTx, Q9x etc. is trouble. You will find fish sticking to you like glue on these boards so either bet hard for value or let it go. Bluffs and semi-bluffs are difficult to pull off and you see calling stations call two streets in these spots as standard even with pocket pairs, so the bluff component of a semi-bluff does not apply. Also weak players typically minraise QJ,QK,KJ,KJ,KT, 88,99, TT, AT, AJ, AQ, type hands so in this hand you have to look at how this range interacts with the board. Some weak players also minraise all their raising hands including premiums at all blind levels.

My guess is if your villain is typical weak-tight-passive he is holding AQ, KQ, TT, AT, 88, QQ, AA, KK and the check-raise indicates a very strong hand. You have around 35% equity against this range getting 6:1 pot odds on the flop and a likely stack off if you hit. As played I would peel the flop and check back the turn if given the opportunity. A flop shove would not fold out any better hands and I can still nurse a 16bb short stack if I do not hit.

Note-
Your villain made 3 key mistakes in this hand-3 betting a small amount pre, checking the flop and small check-raising the flop. You do not have to semi-bluff to beat these types of players. Play tight and bet hard when you hit, back off when raised back.

JD

Full Tilt is back :)
Full Tilt will not track PS strategy points so I'm stuck on bronze :(


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ghaleon
Joined: 17.10.2007

Good post from gawdhelpus. Preflop call versus min3bet is ok and I prefer to checkback flop. Turn stab is fine if villain check again.


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