call20 rule

Originally posted by hvard92
Hello mkjmkjmkj.

I am just a beginner (played for 10 months) so you have to expect some
dumb questions from me.

As you said:
U flop a full house or quads or straight etc 1 in 18 times and then
u flop a set 1 in 9 times. And then we have a rule for calling with
a set, the call20 rule. What if we double the call20 rule concept to call40 rule when we play suited connectors since floping
a straight, full house etc is twice as unlikely that we flop a set?
9+9=1:18=call40 rule=P
Would it be profitable to call with suited connectors then?

Now you can laugh:P

Yes you can. But for your newly mad call40 rule you would have to be 280-320bb deep. So if your playing deep you can pretty much always call a 3bet IP with all types of suited crap just due to positional advantage being so much more important playing 300-400bb deep.

You won't be able to apply this on normal 100bb tables, but on deep 250bb tables on stars or in live games its pretty common.

Ofcourse u most be deep. U can use it otherwise. I don't know what u ment with that. And why is it mad ? You have alot more experience than me. When do you play sc or suited one gappers when having 100 or less?

Originally posted by hvard92
Ofcourse u most be deep. U can use it otherwise. I don't know what u ment with that. And why is it mad ? You have alot more experience than me. When do you play sc or suited one gappers when having 100 or less?

Well it just so rarely happens that you play over 300bb deep.

100bb deep i often play them in aggressive dynamics. Like when somebody 3bets 15% or more(blinds vs button situations) i will pretty much always call with SC and gappers with intention to float and bluff raise flops.

I will not however call 67s vs somebody 3betting 2-3%. You just don't hit big hands often enough and whats worse you hit marginal hands that your committed to putting in even more money postflop. You can't flop a pair and just fold it to 1bet. You might be vs AK or some random bluff once in a while and you do have 5 outs to improve and stack him and then what happens most of the time is you end up calling another bet on the flop and folding to the turn bet 9 out of 10 times you don't improve. In this spot you managed to waste about 20-25bb's depending on the sizings.

And whats more important is in the first scenario you HAVE to call with SC because if you don't your folding to 3bet on the BU 80% of the time, which is going to make him 3bet even more against you. You will basically have a target on your ass against a guy that knows how to abuse it.

In the second scenario the nit obviously isn't capable to abuse your folding frequency against his 3bet else he would be 3betting more often. There really isn't a good reason to defend those hands against nits. Just wait for a pair, flop a set and stack him.

Basically don't defend against 3bet until you have to. Calling 3bets isn't going to make you money.

Thanks. i'm learning much here. What if i play against a rock who raises 3% of the time trough 100 hands and AF is infinite. He raised 1 time in mp2 and i call button with 89s. and if i flop a pair and no draw i just fold to 1bet. Is this profitable? or simply just call any 1raise in position with 10-9s and under? since above that, i often will be dominated.
And is it wrong raising with 2-3s in 1st position in a shorthanded game if 3bet's almost never happends and my opponent fold to cbet 90%
of the time?

Thanks.

Originally posted by hvard92
Thanks. i'm learning much here. What if i play against a rock who raises 3% of the time trough 100 hands and AF is infinite. He raised 1 time in mp2 and i call button with 89s.

Thanks.

Do not play SCs vs 3%PFR super tight super aggressive opponent. This is probably the worst possible player to play suited connectors against. You will fop a flush about 1/100 and even when you do your opponent will either have an overpair+FD and so you lose 30% of the time here, or he possibly manages to get away from his hand after a reraise on a monotone board.

Against 3% super nitty rock, just fold to him unless you have a pocket pair in which case you should use call20 to hit a set except with premium pairs which you should be 3betting. I wouldn't even be 3betting JJ against this much of a nit because he's only going to continue by 4betting AA/KK/QQ/AK and folding the rest of his very tight value range.

I personally wouldn't ever raise with 32s especially not UTG. Maybe you could 3bet bluff against a person with very high PFR but very low Call 3bet, because mostly you win the pot preflop and in the rare times that they do call, if you hit a monster they will never see it coming, and if you don't hit a monster, easy fold. But I'd say its easier to just fold 32s pretty much all the time unless you can limp into a cheap multiway pot (since usually people at micros are gonna be coming in with raggy aces and will often have 2 pair when you make a wheel)

But if he is super agressive and i hit my draw on the turn, isn't that profitable because i have implied?

Originally posted by hvard92
But if he is super agressive and i hit my draw on the turn, isn't that profitable because i have implied?

Lets break this down mathematically

You call preflop 4bb with a suited connector

~5.5% of the time you hit a monster (two pair, trips, straight, flush, full house). Often you will take his stack, but about 30% of the time he will have at least overpair+fd to stack off, or already have a set when you have 2 pair, or hit one after going all in. We'll be generous and say that of this 5.5%, 4% of the time you flop a monster and take his stack and 1.5% of the time you flop a monster but he stacks you. These numbers are a bit generous as we also take into account the times he folds, since his range will contain hands like TT, JJ which he is definitely not going to be calling a reraise shove on the flop with if there are overcards.

So we get 4% of the time win 100bb
and 1% of the time lose 100bb

You will either miss the flop completely or hit 1pair (which against this opponent you have to fold) 75% of the time.
So 75% of the time you lose 4bb

Then we have 20% chance of a straight or flush draw on the turn. Lets say that he bets 2/3 pot into a board with a draw even though if he's super aggressive like you say I believe it will be more than this.

So he bets 6bb into the pot and you call 6bb.
You miss the straight/flush draw approximately 82% of turns.

So, 20%x82% -> 16.4% of the time you lose 10bb (4 preflop and 6 postflop)
And 20%x18% ->3.6% of the time you win 100bb lets be super generous and say that he stacks you off EVERY time you turn a flush or straight even though its probably not true.

Add this all up and we get

0.04*100 + 0.01*-100 + 0.75*-4 + 0.164*-10 + 0.036*100

4 - 1 - 3.25 - 1.64 + 3.6

=1.71

So, if you believe he will stack off 100% of the time you flop a monster or turn a straight/flush then it is actually 1.71bb +EV to make the call assuming you are both playing 100bb deep.

But, lets play around with some stuff. Let's now say that because his range is going to include some selection of 99+, AKs, AKo and that he's super aggressive but not a complete moron eg, he will not stack off AKo on 89T or 6J5Q with two of certain suits, nor will he stack off with 99/TT/JJ on something like A265 (three of x suit) or A89T.

Let's now presume he's going to stack off when you have a monster 65% of the time, which I think is fairly reasonable. 35% of the time he will be able to fold and you will just win the pot.

5.5% - monster flop, ship it, win 100bb 2.5%, win lets say he puts in on average 15bb before he folds 1.9%, lose 100bb 1% as when he does call he is doing it with hands with better equity than the ones he is folding.

75% - lose 4bb same as before

20% is now broken up as -

20%x82% -> 16.4% of the time you lose 10bb (4 preflop and 6 postflop)
And 20%x18% ->2.34% of the time you win 100bb 1.26% of the time you win we'll say 25bb before he folds

0.025*100 + 0.019*15 + 0.01*-100 + 0.75*-4 + 0.164*-10 + 0.0234*100 + 0.0126*25

2.5 + 0.285 - 1 - 3 - 1.64 + 2.34 + 0.315

= -0.2

So its now a -EV play. But interestingly not by as much as I expected it to be. The problem however is that we haven't factored in many complex situations such as when you turn a flush and he has a better flush, or when you turn a flush but the board is paired and he has a full, or hits a full house after going all in.

Although, if he is a total spazz who is incapable of folding, the move is profitable. But I think he gets away if shoved on, more than 35% of the time when you turn the straight or flush, and the move then is not +EV.

interesting question though

[x] End Thread.

Originally posted by hvard92
Thanks. i'm learning much here. What if i play against a rock who raises 3% of the time trough 100 hands and AF is infinite. He raised 1 time in mp2 and i call button with 89s. and if i flop a pair and no draw i just fold to 1bet. Is this profitable? or simply just call any 1raise in position with 10-9s and under? since above that, i often will be dominated.
And is it wrong raising with 2-3s in 1st position in a shorthanded game if 3bet's almost never happends and my opponent fold to cbet 90%
of the time?

Thanks.

Im not really sure if your joking at this point or you really have such a dumb way of thinking.

Can you please give me 1 single good reason for opening 23s (pretty much the nut low) UTG. Do you even know when and why should you open SC UTG?

Hello MatejM47.

Thanks for calling me dumb. I'm just trying to learn here. And im just a beginner. Just so you know, i am gonna continue ask
dumb questions. And i don't need your help if you're gonna act like that.

So. About your question. I was thinking about raising in first position in a short handed game with 23s IF the opponents was folding to cbet like 80 percent of the time. If i hit a A27 board i could take the pot down since i raised in first position. If i hit a draw and make it. He wouldn't put me on 23s so i maybe get paid with some small pocket pair like 22-1010 or something else. Once i get cought. I just stop.

I'm asking dumb questions so you can tell me why i shouldn't do it, why i'm losing on it and why my ideas don't work. I do think my ideas is wrong. But i
still want to know why and that's how i learn. That people tell me why this and that is not working.