NL50 SH - 33: set vs baluga

he raises 22% ott in 4.9k hands

there has to be some bluffing range,and we still have outs vs 45s()

i'd call turn and call river bet

What's his flatting range in SB? Can he have 54s? What about 63s?

If he can show up with Q6s, 6xd I'm not too tempted to fold. However, why do you bet so small on the turn?

Worst case:

Board: 2♦3♣6♠ Q♦
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    10.46%  10.46%   0.00% { 2s2c }
MP3    89.54%  89.54%   0.00% { 66, 33, 54s }

About best case:

Board: 2♦3♣6♠ Q♦
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    47.67%  47.67%   0.00% { 2s2c }
MP3    52.33%  52.33%   0.00% { 66, 33, Q6s, 63s, 54s, Ad6d, Kd6d, Ad5d, Kd5d, Ad4d, Kd4d, Ad3d }

If in some cases he deems a hand like KQss or AQcc only good enough to call pre and then to also float flop and you can include some combos of that is his range or perhaps he just flats KK+ here for whatever reason then you should definitely not fold.

Otherwise, all you can do is make some guesses but rest assured that not folding here doesn't lose you money since set vs set everybody gets it in on this board so folding would be you exploiting his very tight range.

Its only from 18 spots ttjjboy, i dont think we should give much importance to that stat.

I dont think his range can be that wide. Imo no way he will have Q6s, 63s or K6s.
I would give him something around these TT-22,AQo-AJo,KQo,AJs-ATs,KQs-KJs,QJs,JTs,T9s; with maybe a bit more AXs and SCs.

Anyway as he is folding a high percentage on the flop and there is one more player after him i guess his floating range will be very narrow.

As I said, folding here is you trying to exploit his tight range on a turn check/raise. If you can discount anything but 66 and 33 it comes an obvious fold and you definitely need to add quite a few combos of worse to consider not folding.

What I mean is, from a game theory perspective, he is allowed to sometimes bluff here and not be exploitable whether you have a set or air.

Hi,

Q seems quite nice turrel card for hero, so I think he would c/r some Ax hands+ some pocketpairs. I would also not fold set this spot. Also I would expect he would 3-bet (at least some %) pre-flop 33/66 against min-raise and does not call always 54s (again rather 3-bet or fold)

Call turn and call at any river seems fine plan

best regards,

Off course he is raising with worse, especially when he does it 20% on turn, it means it is mostly bluff. And here your bet was weak, he could try to bluff off your 77-JJ here, and he could have draw. He could also call flop with KQ, AQ, and raise to protect.

I find it funny that people are giving importance to raise cbet turn stat. 22% of 18 ocasions means that he raised turn 4 out of 18 times. And one of those is this spot. So in reality villain raised 3 times the turn cbet in 17 chances he had. To me that means absolutely nothing.

Originally posted by double2
I find it funny that people are giving importance to raise cbet turn stat. 22% of 18 ocasions means that he raised turn 4 out of 18 times. And one of those is this spot. So in reality villain raised 3 times the turn cbet in 17 chances he had. To me that means absolutely nothing.

Is it much different if villian raises 22% turn, but 400/1800 times?
Because in so big statistics, villian changes his style overtime (like I did, and many players at low limits) and he could have played before aggresive and now nitty. Some players play one day nitty, other day aggresive (which is recommended in articles), and then you can completely ignore this stat.

I would more believe to 4/18 raise stat, because it means he played like this recently and it is very likely that he still plays like that. And 4/18 raise could mean nuts each time, but what is the probability to have nuts on turn 4/18, quite low (especially if he doesnt fold much on flop).
so I would call his raise just because 4/18 stat and unloggical line. IF 0/18, I fold without thinking twice.

I think this looks like AQ.

He is not 3betting as much due to fish in BB?

I doubt he has Q6 and 54s and other garbage in his range given this fish in BB and how tight he is.

I would also expect him to lead out with 66 and and 33 given the fish in BB. And or x/r flop often if he expect you to cbet for some reason (maybe BB folds often to cbets or something).

I don't think the turn x/r stats are enough to say he is x/r a ton. But combined with the flop, shows he is capable of x/r more than just sets. This type of guy in my experience is more likely to raise tp/tk hand than draws too.

The raise turn stat is kind of irrelevant imo. Plus, it's built on other stats. He can raise turns often if he folds all but the nuts on previous streets.

Like I've said twice already probably: Folding a set here is probably you trying to exploit his nittiness. Is he nitty enough? If you get it in you don't lose since if you exchange hands and you give him 22 and yourself better, stacks always go in. But you folding here vs anything worse is quite bad with this hand imo.