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plo50, turn spot vs fish

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Skodljivec
Joined: 17.12.2011

Villain is likely a fish, 100/25 over 4 hands...

turn?

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 Pot Limit Omaha Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (MP): $60.79 (121.6 bb)
CO: $50 (100 bb)
BTN: $22.55 (45.1 bb)
SB: $50 (100 bb)
BB: $42.92 (85.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q A 4 Q
Hero raises to $1.75, CO calls $1.75, BTN calls $1.75, 2 folds

Flop: ($6) 8 T 2 (3 players)
Hero bets $4, CO folds, BTN calls $4

Turn: ($14) K (2 players)
Hero ???


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13 replies
RuiBouquet
Joined: 21.03.2008

I would check/fold this flop I think. You are OOP, poor position to play a hand like this.


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Skodljivec
Joined: 17.12.2011

C'mon, you can't check fold this. It's not like it's a bad flop, i still have an overpair and bdsd and bdfd


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fizbin
Joined: 16.01.2013

Your hand is respectable, in the top 5%, but it sucks to be out of position 2- or 3-way. If you limp when you open in middle position, then you won't be short-handed out of position. In this hand, the blinds probably would have been in too. That's nice if you flop a set or a draw. And if you miss, it's an easy check-fold on the flop against four opponents (unless maybe a late player bets and everyone else folds.) What do you think about open-limping 2 spots off the button?

Given your actual situation, heads up on the turn out of position against a 4-for-4 player, I suspect you have a 50% chance of having the best hand at the moment, and if not, you likely have a fair number of outs. I would take a look at his aggression stat, despite the small sample size, and if he does not seem overly aggressive then continue with another half-hearted bet. He smells like a novice fish, and they won't react with a pot-sized bluff raise like a seasoned veteran might. A quick country check can be helpful too. A player from Greece or Finland is likely to be aggressive. On the river, if unimproved, you will want to check-fold, because a bet is going to be called by any hand that beats you. So that's why I would be trying to abandon ship on the turn against an aggressive player.


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Skodljivec
Joined: 17.12.2011

I forgot to mention, CO is a weak regular that folds to 80% of flop cbets, so i was 80% sure he would fold


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RuiBouquet
Joined: 21.03.2008

Originally posted by fizbin
If you limp when you open in middle position, then you won't be short-handed out of position.

Never heard about that strategy! Where do you saw it?

Originally posted by fizbin
A quick country check can be helpful too. A player from Greece or Finland is likely to be aggressive.

ahah are you talking true? this can't be reliable!!


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Skodljivec
Joined: 17.12.2011

hahaha Awesome troll posts


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fizbin
Joined: 16.01.2013

Originally posted by RuiBouquet

Originally posted by fizbin
If you limp when you open in middle position, then you won't be short-handed out of position.

Never heard about that strategy! Where do you saw it?

Hwang, though it's in his full table book. I don't know for sure what he would say about open-limping in the hijack seat. Hwang wrote this on 2+2:

...you might play three Broadway cards with a dangler (at least single-suited) UTG or in the hijack in a 6-max game if the players behind you are passive and don't raise much; otherwise, you should throw them away from out of position. On the button -- or in the cutoff with a tight player to my left -- you can open with a raise with these hands, but generally limp in if a player has entered the pot in front of you.

So you have to read between the lines. He states that you can play three Broadways with a dangler in the hijack in a 6-max game, and then he says you can open-raise on the button, extending to the cutoff if there is a tight player on the button. With this hand in the hijack, Hwang says you can play it and implies you can't open-raise with it, so that's sounding like a limp when opening to me (if the players behind are passive, else muck), but it's possible he would always muck there when no limpers came in before. It's also unclear how he would play other hands, like AQQ4ss, in the hijack in an unopened pot, but his foremost goal is to not get isolated heads up out of position.

Originally posted by RuiBouquet

Originally posted by fizbin
A quick country check can be helpful too. A player from Greece or Finland is likely to be aggressive.

ahah are you talking true? this can't be reliable!!

Subgroup	VPIP	PFR	3Bet	AFq%
---------	----	---	----	-----	
All Greeks	72	18	4	41
All Players	43	13	1	41	

"All Greeks" is all players that I noted as being Greek in notes and that also had 20 or more hands; there are 42 of these players. I always note player country whenever I write a note. "All Players" is all players for which I have 20 or more hands. The median values are given. This is all Omaha, and 99.9% of it is 6-max Hi PLO, ranging from .05-.10 to .50-1.00.

My hypothesis is that Greeks are generally more aggressive than non-Greeks, and at first glance you might think my hypothesis is busted; the aggression frequency is the same for Greeks and the whole population. However, you can't view aggression stats in isolation. You have to look at the VPIP too. For 6-max, a player with 20% VPIP and 41% aggression frequency is conservative, bordering on passive nit. A player with 43% VPIP and 41% aggression frequency is looser than optimal and not particularly aggressive. By contrast, a player with 72% VPIP and 41% aggression frequency is often bluffing or overplaying; he's betting and raising just as often as a conservative nit, but he doesn't have the hand strength to support it. By the time you get to 80% VPIP and 50% aggression frequency, that is definitely a maniac in my book.

The Greeks also seem to have the lead in PFR% and 3Bet% compared to the general population.

So, perhaps a safe way to summarize the statistics is this: if you find yourself in a low stakes PLO hand with an unknown Greek, it is statistically much more likely that he is an ultra loose and relatively aggressive player than if he were from some random other country.

Edit: Oh drat, there is an obvious flaw to my methodology here. If I'm more likely to write notes about loose and/or aggressive players, then that could be the sole cause of the Greeks appearing to be insane. The Greeks I've written notes about could be no more insane than others that I write notes about. I'll try to fix that sample bias later.

I don't plan to do the same analysis for players from Finland, because I know how it would come out. There are tight Fins and there are loose Fins, but there are no passive Fins. It's an exaggeration, of course. However, the Finnish population is not going to have that insanely loose profile of the Greeks.

Here's a funny anecdote. I wait until a player has 40 hands before I color code them for their VPIP. A Greek player had a VPIP of 42% after 40 hands, which I would color "green" for loose, and I thought, "no way, that's impossible!" Sure enough, after more hands his VPIP migrated up to 78%, putting him into the blue (whale) color category, just as I suspected.

Raw Greek data:

Spoiler
I have censored the player names, because most are huge fish, and so I wouldn't want to insult them. ;) 
Player   		Hand	VPIP	PFR	3Bet	AFq%	
Greek #1		(27)	82	7	9	46
Greek #2		(54)	51	6	0	24
Greek #3		(104)	57	14	6	41
Greek #4		(40)	83	13	6	49
Greek #5		(57)	52	25	11	51
Greek #6		(28)	86	54	10	56
Greek #7		(30)	87	27	6	42
Greek #8		(76)	68	16	4	37
Greek #9		(41)	88	44	5	44
Greek #10		(82)	56	2	3	17
Greek #11		(70)	52	15	6	40
Greek #12		(24)	92	25	0	30
Greek #13		(24)	88	25	22	21
Greek #14		(129)	68	6	2	34
Greek #15		(68)	39	21	0	50
Greek #16		(28)	74	19	0	48
Greek #17		(73)	89	11	8	27
Greek #18		(39)	62	31	7	28
Greek #19		(97)	88	27	6	38
Greek #20		(61)	31	16	0	61
Greek #21		(58)	70	23	3	41
Greek #22		(146)	89	15	5	54
Greek #23		(57)	56	23	0	55
Greek #24		(116)	38	4	4	41
Greek #25		(34)	82	35	0	55
Greek #26		(22)	95	30	0	37
Greek #27		(39)	72	8	0	54
Greek #28		(86)	68	4	5	50
Greek #29		(96)	78	15	4	44
Greek #30		(147)	74	19	12	26
Greek #31		(25)	92	8	0	29
Greek #32		(34)	70	27	20	28
Greek #33		(23)	74	26	0	49
Greek #34		(75)	59	8	3	33
Greek #35		(89)	99	55	35	46
Greek #36		(91)	46	0	0	28
Greek #37		(26)	58	23	0	45
Greek #38		(68)	56	4	0	37
Greek #39		(30)	84	17	0	43
Greek #40		(39)	90	44	13	36
Greek #41		(72)	69	21	9	57
Greek #42		(26)	92	27	7	44

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Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

I would say that trust your hem stats and reads, don't make any assumptions on villain's name, country or avatar.

I don't buy the fact that all Finns are aggressive. Come on, my PFR is under 40 in most of my sessions! :f_biggrin:

I am sure we have some sort of limping thread, no need to go through that discussion again. What Hwang has wrote years ago is for full ring. And that is whole different game than modern 6max. Don't open limp.

There are some rare exceptions, but in general: don't open limp.


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Ribbo
Joined: 25.06.2010

You have 0 outs to the nuts on the flop which is why I agree with check/folding. Against 2 opponents I would expect one of them to call and will have no idea at all where I stand on the turn, there just isn't a good turn card for us.

Heads up I am fine with betting, but multiway and out of position I don't like what will usually happen (someone calling me)


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fizbin
Joined: 16.01.2013

Okay, I think I fixed most of the sample bias in my previous post:

Subgroup	VPIP	PFR	3Bet	AFq%
---------	----	---	----	-----	
Greeks    	68	16	4	41
Canadians	58	9	4	40
Brits   	43	8	2	45
Germans   	41	12	3	42
Finns    	31	15	2	42
Russians	26	13	4	42
NonGreeks	42	13	4	41

"NonGreeks" is all players that have notes, but where the notes don't include the text "Greek" or "Greece". "Finns" is all players that have a note that includes the text "Finn" or "Finland", and so on for the other groups. I bumped the minimum hand number up to 40 for all groups, and restricted to one site to make it easier on myself, so that's whey the Greek numbers are slightly changed.

So, the evidence persists: there are no loose Greek players - there are only very loose Greek players. And they are aggressive given that their hands are garbage. Canadians are another of my favorite players, so I pulled up their stats next, and yep, Canadians are loose and passive preflop. Brits and Germans are middle of the road, except Brits are the most passive preflop and the most aggressive postflop. Does that sound right? Is it a statistical glitch or something I never noticed before? Finns are tighter on average, but there isn't evidence of the aggression with which I stereotyped them. Russians measured tightest of all. Scary tight. There's probably some truth to that, but I think there is a new sample bias here; if I see a group of nonfishy Russians who seem to be going out of their way to play at the same tables, I make a note of it, which puts them into the sample.

Note that the sample sizes may be fooling me. I didn't list countries with less than 40 players that had at least 40 hands each, but I haven't done statistical tests.


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RuiBouquet
Joined: 21.03.2008

Originally posted by fizbin
Okay, I think I fixed most of the sample bias in my previous post:

Subgroup	VPIP	PFR	3Bet	AFq%
---------	----	---	----	-----	
Greeks    	68	16	4	41
Canadians	58	9	4	40
Brits   	43	8	2	45
Germans   	41	12	3	42
Finns    	31	15	2	42
Russians	26	13	4	42
NonGreeks	42	13	4	41

"NonGreeks" is all players that have notes, but where the notes don't include the text "Greek" or "Greece". "Finns" is all players that have a note that includes the text "Finn" or "Finland", and so on for the other groups. I bumped the minimum hand number up to 40 for all groups, and restricted to one site to make it easier on myself, so that's whey the Greek numbers are slightly changed.

So, the evidence persists: there are no loose Greek players - there are only very loose Greek players. And they are aggressive given that their hands are garbage. Canadians are another of my favorite players, so I pulled up their stats next, and yep, Canadians are loose and passive preflop. Brits and Germans are middle of the road, except Brits are the most passive preflop and the most aggressive postflop. Does that sound right? Is it a statistical glitch or something I never noticed before? Finns are tighter on average, but there isn't evidence of the aggression with which I stereotyped them. Russians measured tightest of all. Scary tight. There's probably some truth to that, but I think there is a new sample bias here; if I see a group of nonfishy Russians who seem to be going out of their way to play at the same tables, I make a note of it, which puts them into the sample.

Note that the sample sizes may be fooling me. I didn't list countries with less than 40 players that had at least 40 hands each, but I haven't done statistical tests.

I think you can ever see the things that way! That's a beautiful statistical work but nothing more than that. It's an interesting think to appreciate out of the tables, but a thing not to have in consideration when you are playing imo!

Maybe if you play zoom it can be the only info you can have about the villain and that way, yes, it can be usefull!! Other than that, in regular tables, think it's better to have that "generalizations" apart!! You have too many more things to look for besides his nationality!! Every player in an individuality, and there are better ways to categorize them than their country. Looking at his stats, noticing weird moves and taking note of hands he showdowns I think you can have a better approach to what of player he his.

Regarding the statistics per se, I think you can also had a standard deviation parameter to have a less subjective view of it. Please have in mind than in every country you will find TAG's, LAG's, aggrofishes, passive fishes, maniacs, CS's..... When you say:

Originally posted by fizbin
So, the evidence persists: there are no loose Greek players - there are only very loose Greek players.

That's a totally incorrect thinking! That's an average! You can only say that if you watch the list of the "at least 40" Greek players you have and see that anyone has a VPIP smaller than 60 or 50.

Originally posted by fizbin
Canadians are loose and passive preflop

So, Daniel Negreanu is loose and passive PF.......


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masa9
Joined: 23.11.2010

Haha, funny thread.

To the hand: pot/call turn vs his stacksize. Cbetting flop is close, but with the backdoor draws and some other good barreling cards, i think its fine.


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fizbin
Joined: 16.01.2013

Ruibouquet, poker is about Bayesian inferences. Ignoring information would be counterproductive, when there is little information to begin with. If I only know that a player has played two out of two hands, then I might guess that he's a loose player, but my confidence would be low. I might feel the same way about a player I know is Canadian but who has not yet been dealt a hand. However, if I know both that he has played two out of two hands and that he's Canadian, then that much raises the chance that he is a loose player. And you could estimate that chance mathematically. Likewise, if an unknown Canadian sits down at your table but then doesn't play a hand for 10 hands straight, there is not much chance that he is a very loose player.

Read "Harrington on Cash Games, volume II", just the interview section with Bobby Hoff, where he talks about stereotyping unknown live game players based on their appearance. Of course, he revises his first impression quickly based on information from the hands. However, if all he knows is that it's an old white guy with a Rolex, he's going to go with his past experience with other old white guys with Rolexes, not pretend like he can't even see the guy.


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