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Rush fr nl5

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xoshix33
Joined: 16.09.2011

Full Tilt - $0.05 NL FAST - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 43.8 BB
BTN: 137 BB
SB: 90 BB
BB: 148.6 BB
UTG: 32 BB
UTG+1: 45.8 BB
Hero (UTG+2): 102.2 BB
MP: 17.4 BB
MP+1: 178.4 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 9♣ 9♠

fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, MP raises to 17.4 BB and is all-in, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 14.4 BB

Flop: (36.2 BB, 2 players) 4♥ A♠ 6♣

Turn: (36.2 BB, 2 players) K♦

River: (36.2 BB, 2 players) 8♦

villain is unknown.
i think its safe to assign him this range>
Equity Win Tie
SB 48.53% 47.93% 0.60% 9h9s
BB 51.47% 50.87% 0.60% 77+, ATs+, KQs, ATo+, KQo

and iam ahead 48% of the time, now with the pot odds i need 40% equity+ to make it profitable.
i think its the best play here?
also id like you to confirm if my calculations are right =P


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

Hi.

Standard call IF you were in late positions. Do you really think an MP player would just randomly ship AT/KQ/AJ over your open raise?

The range you assigned MP is just way too optimistic. I think it is a close spot.

Let's check your pot odds here first. 14.4/36.2 = 39.8%

Optimistic

Equity Win Tie
MP2 41.33% 40.43% 0.90% 99
MP3 58.67% 57.77% 0.90% 88+, AQs+, AQo+

Pessimistic

Equity Win Tie
MP2 32.91% 32.71% 0.20% 99
MP3 67.09% 66.88% 0.20% TT+, AQs+, AKo

I would err towards making a nitty fold here if I knew he was a short stacking reg. In my opinion, people don't just randomly shove crappy hands over you here when you are opening from early position.

He could easily be a fish though (based on his stack size) and fishes with short stacks tend to push a whole bunch of weak hands.

In conclusion, it's close and if I knew he was one-tabling I probably call it off here.

Thanks.


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