Originally posted by GlitlrPS
Honestly, if a person showed 32o the first hand of a 9 man and shoved, I'd still fold AK. I don't fold because if ICM, I just fold because I don't like calling.
Seriously? You would pass up a big +EV spot because you dont like calling 
Originally posted by Gavron23
Originally posted by GlitlrPS
Honestly, if a person showed 32o the first hand of a 9 man and shoved, I'd still fold AK. I don't fold because if ICM, I just fold because I don't like calling.Seriously? You would pass up a big +EV spot because you dont like calling
Yes. I feel that my presence in the game 100% of the time is more valuable than my presence in the game half the time with 3000.
So you are giving yourself an edge of above 2? Really?
Now I understand your argument that staying in the game has future value as you expect to be much better than the others, but in case of the 32o we are talking about a fifth of a buyin in equity. Don't think you have enough ROI to pass up that spot
Also, consider what pzhon said: losing early on has the "advantage" of the ability of loading another game, therefore "increasing" our hourly (from a certain perspective, check his comment).
Originally posted by GlitlrPS
Honestly, if a person showed 32o the first hand of a 9 man and shoved, I'd still fold AK. I don't fold because if ICM, I just fold because I don't like calling.
This seems like terrible advice. Is "not calling" here more important to you than making money, say more money than you make on average in an entire tournament?
By the way, according to the ICM, calling increases your standard deviation for the tournament by less than 10%. Essentially, you will rarely coast into the money without ever risking your stack. 66% equity is way better than you typically get, so this opportunity isn't even particularly risky.
Here is a thought experiment for those who think they are fantastic players with huge edges later. Suppose you have $1 and the chance to double up as a 65-35 favorite now. Somehow you know that in 5 minutes you will get the opportunity to double up anything you have left as an 80-20 favorite. Should you take the gamble now, with a 35% chance that you won't get to bet anything as an 80-20 favorite later, or guarantee that you will get the 80-20 later? The mathematical answer is that if you refuse the initial gamble, you average $1.60 ($0.60 profit), but if you take both then you average $2.08 ($1.08 profit). It is important to accumulate chips so you can use your skill advantage later.
If someone is showing trash and pushing, you might find a better chance later. However, it is likely that you won't get that opportunity. Every time a maniac pushes in front of several people, there is a significant chance someone other than you will have a premium hand, or will realize that you don't need a premium hand to call a maniac's push. Also, you won't find better than AK very often.
Originally posted by pzhon
Originally posted by GlitlrPS
Honestly, if a person showed 32o the first hand of a 9 man and shoved, I'd still fold AK. I don't fold because if ICM, I just fold because I don't like calling.This seems like terrible advice. Is "not calling" here more important to you than making money, say more money than you make on average in an entire tournament?
By the way, according to the ICM, calling increases your standard deviation for the tournament by less than 10%. Essentially, you will rarely coast into the money without ever risking your stack. 66% equity is way better than you typically get, so this opportunity isn't even particularly risky.
Here is a thought experiment for those who think they are fantastic players with huge edges later. Suppose you have $1 and the chance to double up as a 65-35 favorite now. Somehow you know that in 5 minutes you will get the opportunity to double up anything you have left as an 80-20 favorite. Should you take the gamble now, with a 35% chance that you won't get to bet anything as an 80-20 favorite later, or guarantee that you will get the 80-20 later? The mathematical answer is that if you refuse the initial gamble, you average $1.60 ($0.60 profit), but if you take both then you average $2.08 ($1.08 profit). It is important to accumulate chips so you can use your skill advantage later.
If someone is showing trash and pushing, you might find a better chance later. However, it is likely that you won't get that opportunity. Every time a maniac pushes in front of several people, there is a significant chance someone other than you will have a premium hand, or will realize that you don't need a premium hand to call a maniac's push. Also, you won't find better than AK very often.
Hey. I appreciate your advice.
