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NL400 AJo, Trips in ugly spot OTR

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axelphoney
Joined: 03.10.2009

Prima, $2/$4 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

CO: $409.10 (102.3 bb)
BTN: $398.70 (99.7 bb)
SB: $781.20 (195.3 bb)
Hero (BB): $687 (171.8 bb)
UTG: $459 (114.8 bb)
MP: $404 (101 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J A
2 folds, CO raises to $12, 2 folds, Hero raises to $40, CO calls $28

Flop: ($82) A 4 A (2 players)
Hero bets $42, CO calls $42

Turn: ($166) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($166) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $118, CO raises to $327.10 and is all-in, Hero?

Villain: 25/21
37% fold to 3bet
44% fold to resteal
47% fold to cbet flop
28 WTS
1k hands
Notes:
Valuebets thinly

I usually take this line of bet flop, check turn with trips OOP on these kinds of boards. Main reason being that I doubt I can extract 3 streets of value from something worse, unless he just has a worse ace, which he obv does, but he is at the same time betting them himself.

So firstly, do you like the line of bet check/x with the intention of calling down or bet OTR if he checks back? Or could there even be some merit into checking twice and hoping he takes a stab on the pot and/or makes a thin valuebet?

As played, can we ever fold here? His line looks so nutty, but at the same time it looks a bit confusing to me that he would check back a full house OTT with the risk of missing out on the chance of stacking me. But then on the other hand what is he trying to get me off here? If he believes I am bluffing then he should just obv call with his bluffcatchers. Or could he be trying to get me off an ace here?

Any feedback is much appreciated!


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4 replies
imfromsweden007
Joined: 11.10.2008

Hi,

Pre/flop/turn should be alright, he has such low fold % that he prob has a decent amount of weak hands/floats so turn check should be fine. When he checks back turn it seems less likely he has a float and more likely something that he's willing to take to showdown, so betting river should be alright. THe problem is though; bet/check/bet has not been a bluff in 6max since somewhere in the mid 90s, and secondly, he might just valuebet the hands he could potentially call himself. So river is whatever, betting is obv not bad, at least if you promise that you balance it by sometimes taking that line as a bluff, but checking could be cool as well. As played, from a balance perspective I guess it's a call, AJ should be pretty far up on our river betting range... so if we want to fold it's purely from an explotiable perspective. I would probably feel bad and up calling, it's just so hard for him to have a valuehand, congrats to him if he has 66. But he could perhaps sometimes be bluffing, expecting us to bet turn with most of our strong Ax, and sometimes bet like Qx on the river, and maybe there's a chance he ships AT. So yeah, I think I end up calling here, results?

ifs


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axelphoney
Joined: 03.10.2009

He had 66, obv :P


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Scoob101
Joined: 11.10.2006

What about checking River with our whole range? If he has worser Ax hands, I expect him to bet the River (especially with the note : vbets light). We give him the chance to bluff his busted draws. The only disadvantag is, that he checks back hands like KdQd,QdJd, which not really is a big part of his range. And I also like c/r all our AK,AQ,QQ hands.


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imfromsweden007
Joined: 11.10.2008

Are we going for a CRAI with AJ? Not sure about how many Ax he has here + he might not necessarily call our raise with Ax. I guess we get roughly the same value vs Ax by checking, maybe slightly more. We also get more from floats, the question is how many floats he gets to the river with (ie doesnt bet turn?). We definitely lose value vs his SD value hands though that might hero-call a bet, but will never bet themselves. The question is how much we lose versus these, since we'd have to know how often they would hero-call, but I do expect the last group to be in a majority. So I think river check is FINE, but I definitely think that betting should be our default option, just because the majority of his range consists of bluffcatchers.


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