Broken RNG – Page 10 – PokerStrategy

_Anonymous_ · 2013-02-25T03:47:08Z

I have played 32.000 SnGs on Stars and I've been running really bad from day one. How bad? Mathematician friend of mine roughly calculated that I'm running around 1700 BIs Under EV. Before I go into how impossible this is, I'll first elaborate how we got to this number by using 3 key points: 1) Poker Tracking Software Graph HEM says I'm running 470 BIs under EV. 2) EV Line Error When Someone Busts Out I didn't have too much time or patience to search for this too extensively but I searched the last 500 SnGs and found 20 of them I finished ITM without going all in a single time. Graph looks like this: Spoiler I took only the ones where I went out on the second place because these SnGs perfectly illustrate what happens when someone busts out. Not only is EV line 24$ below my absolute minimum possible profit from those HUs, it seems that it includes my AI equity as well which is just ridiculous. I went AI 17 times with an average equity of 44% and an average chip stack of 1990. That should give me at least some more EV right? Apparently not. I could say that I should have gotten +5$ on each of those All Ins and I'd probably be roughly right so let it be so (all of this is just a rough representation of my claims). 5$x15 + 24$ = 99$ per 15 SnGs or 6.6$ per 1 If I include those 5 SnGs where I ended up 1st as well, we get up to 132$ for 500 SnGs that I have searched. Which means that my EV line should be 17.6 extra BIs above where it currently is (per 1000 SnGs). Or 563 BIs per 32.000 that I have played. Now this is just for those SnGs where I went into the money without an all in, but what happens in other SnGs where I get to the bubble without going all in? What happens when I get to the bubble with an all in? Correct me if I'm missing something here, but I suppose I'm ripped off every time someone busts out, but I'll leave this to professionals to calculate. EDIT: I'll search some more SnGs for the ones with which I made the above graph, for more accurate estimate. It's quite time consuming though because I have to search each SnG individually. That's why I searched only 500 for which I needed 4 hours. 3) The Set-Ups Don't get me wrong here, I'm perfectly fine with set-ups and I know they happen often. I have seen enough of Poker After Dark episodes to get a rough idea. What I do mind though, is that those set-ups are much more often in their favor. I kept track of this through the last 4.500 SnGs which should be a fair representation of my whole poker carrier (and it certainly feel so) where I had: Set-Ups in my favor: 97 Set-Ups against me: 330 By "Set-Ups" I mean loosing a flush to a higher flush or FH, loosing set to a higher set etc. Either way the criteria was the same for both sides. EDIT: The most important thing about this is that I went all in post flop and getting it IN bad, when the odds are saying I should be good. Out of 427 cases that I counted, it should have gone 213:214 let's say... which means I should have doubled up to 3000 chips another 116 times which is A LOT. Number of chips is roughly accurate because I didn't count cases when I was really short on chips, and the range is between 750 to 4500, not counting odd set-ups in HU when it gets up to 9000. So 116 extra double ups per 4.500 SnGs, which is 825 total. Now, what I could have done with those chips is a bit tough and I should go through my database to see how often I cashed after the double up, but I could do a super conservative estimate: Let's say that out of those 825 cases where I busted instead of doubling up to a healthy stack, I'd end HU around 35% of the time (I think that is more then a fair estimate, it should probbably be much higher). That is 289 HUs. Now let's say in HU I got 50-50 chance for a first place, which is again very conservative considering my table selection skills: 144.5 x 54.29$ + 144.5 x 29.23$ = 12069$ Or 805 BIs. EDIT: These Set-Ups has been constantly happening since I started playing on Stars. It's not just a thing from the past 4500 SnGs. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This all Adds up to 1838 BIs under EV which seems almost spot on to what my friend calculated. Now, bare in mind that we were extremely conservative and didn't include some things which I won't go into detail here like: *Fact that I'm flopping pairs less often then I should *When I flop a something, the board is extremely wet and it gets increasingly wetter *My opponents seem to hit the board too often *Didn't count point 2) with the rest of the SnGs which are influenced as well etc. All of this will be taken into consideration when I hand over my HHs to professionals for a complete analysis. "Please Bear In Mind..." ...that I'm aware that these examples that I gave, might be off a bit, but I did them conservatively and the chanc...

eslchr1s

Joined: 20.12.2009

Posts: 5,360

28.03.2013, 23:58 0

can someone close this thread? if u wanna cry and build some weird theorys, please open a blog and post your crap there. thanks.

Original von Kero
Auf der Homepage steht, dass mein Kontostand 2,07€ beträgt. Ich hatte aber definitiv 2,67€, als ich das letzte mal die Software beendet hatte.

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_Anonymous_

29.03.2013, 00:16 0

Originally posted by eslchr1s
can someone close this thread? if u wanna cry and build some weird theorys, please open a blog and post your crap there. thanks.

This is funny because I never really whined about my downswing. All I did here, is defend my point of view against ignorant people who attacked me with nothing. Namely: calling me a bad player, calling my downswing just improbable, saying that I can't do anything with my lawsuit etc.
If you call making sense as 'crying', then please leave this thread and pump your post count elsewhere.

This thread is now open so I can post the results of my lawsuit in here. I don't see the problem with that.

EDIT: Be free to quote me and prove my 'theorys' wrong. That's how grown ups discuss things.

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Rihard4a

Joined: 08.09.2010

Posts: 2,059

29.03.2013, 00:30 0

Originally posted by VladimirN

Originally posted by eslchr1s
can someone close this thread? if u wanna cry and build some weird theorys, please open a blog and post your crap there. thanks.

This is funny because I never really whined about my downswing. All I did here, is defend my point of view against ignorant people who attacked me with nothing. Namely: calling me a bad player, calling my downswing just improbable, saying that I can't do anything with my lawsuit etc.
If you call making sense as 'crying', then please leave this thread and pump your post count elsewhere.

This thread is now open so I can post the results of my lawsuit in here. I don't see the problem with that.

EDIT: Be free to quote me and prove my 'theorys' wrong. That's how grown ups discuss things.

EDITED BY HOLLYMICHELLE - Last warning Rihard4a - No more trolling - if you have nothing intelligent to post then please refrain from posting at all. We will have to remove your forum rights if this continues.

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UPAY4DINNER

Joined: 28.09.2009

Posts: 22,746

29.03.2013, 00:40 0

See above edit.

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eslchr1s

Joined: 20.12.2009

Posts: 5,360

29.03.2013, 04:09 0

why do you think u have any chance in court? u play on pokerstars on your free will and your made up stuff wont convince any judge.

furthermore, if they would say that u should get payed cuz u ran so bad that it is improbable they open the door for a flood of lawsuits.

and i think this thread has nothing to do in the pokerstars forum. and u dont really ask a question as well... what do you wanna hear? do you search support or what? i really dont get it. if u want to document how bad u run or what ever, just open a blog.

Original von Kero
Auf der Homepage steht, dass mein Kontostand 2,07€ beträgt. Ich hatte aber definitiv 2,67€, als ich das letzte mal die Software beendet hatte.

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