AQs NL50SH

Originally posted by EmanuelC16
OK, cool.

If UTG calls with Qx on the flop (which he will) he probably calls turn as well but is often going to pot control his weakest Qx. That means he won't bet but is definitely likely to call again imo. You also beat all Qx in BU's range and against his sets you continue to put in money when he bets them but you give him the chance to check back his medium hands.

I think that after you lead flop it's a clear bet on the turn and then you decide on the river. This river and J is probably a fold because it completes QJ, KQ that are clearly in both their ranges. T is not bad because it's only in BU's range, UTG won't open that. On other rivers you can decide to vbet or not depending on what happens after your turn bet.

Cheers.

Would it be too weak to check fold on the turn? If BTN folds to cbet 80%, he is probably even tighter 3way, plus utg calls our bet, so our only hope on turn is that all 3 players have Qx where we have the best hand. I think more often is the case that BTN slowplays the set (no draws), or UTG calls with KK+, sometimes AQ.

I personally don't lead AQ here but when you lead you assume you get value, otherwise it's pointless. If you get value and the turn blanks, you should still be able to value bet. If you cannot, there's a problem with the previous streets usually.

I think we are not super profitable against BU ofc, but against both their ranges we are value betting. BU is close to 0EV but against UTG we should be very confident on a turn bet.

I don't like leading flop since it's a spot where both will just cbet most their hands and we look reasonably strong but if we do bet, we go with the logic that we get value since we are towards the top of our range.