2NL ZOOM - AQo 3B pot

Hi.

I wouldn't want him to shove, why would you want that to happen? You are never getting it in as a favourite.

Turn: You bet 40 cents here, pot will have 1.40 on the River and you'll be left with 81 cents which seems reasonable.

Question is whether you are committed here. Let's try to guess SB's check/pushing range.

Pot odds: 0.81 / 3.02 = 26.8%
Equity = 23.59% ?

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: JdTd5d9h
Equity Win Tie
MP2 76.41% 76.41% 0.00% { TT, 9d9h, 9d9s, 9d9c, KQs, 9d8d, 9d7d, 8d7d, 7d6d, KQo }
MP3 23.59% 23.59% 0.00% { AdQs }

If I add all combos of AJo then your equity goes up to 28.11%. I do think his turn check/pushing range should be more weighted towards flushes and KQ though, and less one pair type of hands.

So I think it's more of a fold.

Thanks.

Interesting stuff, I actually thought I was in a good spot at the time. The only query I have with your range is that JJ wasn't included? Not that it would exactly make a huge difference anyways:

Board: Jd Td 5d 9h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 75.091% 75.09% 00.00% 826 0.00 { JJ-99, KQs, 9d8d, 9d7d, 8d7d, 7d6d, KQo }
Hand 1: 24.909% 24.91% 00.00% 274 0.00 { AdQs }

I realise where I screwed up. At game speed I was thinking of situations where you flop an overpair or TPTK with the NFD. All I had was no made hand with two draws, so it's the made hand/NFD where you'd be wanting the shove.

Just as a hypothetical, is this a reasonable range for villain if the flop had Qd instead of Jd, giving me TPTK and NFD?

Board: Qd Td 5d 9h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.327% 44.91% 04.42% 1067 105.00 { QQ, TT-99, AQs-AJs, KJs+, J9s, 9d8d, 9d7d, AQo-AJo, KJo+ }
Hand 1: 50.673% 46.25% 04.42% 1099 105.00 { AdQs }

Or maybe that range is being too generous for my own hand!

I think JJ may often 4b in late positions (perhaps not at a passive NL2 game)
I also do think that JJ raises the Flop really often. I was merely discounting the number of sets in villain's range by only including TT and 99 and not JJ/55.

I think if you had the top pair it's more of a call cos you may be dominating the occasional overplayed top pair weaker kicker. The problem with your gutshot here is that it's often not clean vs a flush so you would only have your nut flush draw out)

I guess it also depends on the opponent what you should do post-flop in this situation, which is one problem with fast-poker where most players are unknown. Best to play a bit nittier post-flop in this game.

As it turned out, he had the worst possible hand I could have been facing.

Thanks for the detailed advice, it was very helpful.