nl100 99 shove preflop bb vs sb

shove is pretty terrible imo. call

Hey Mlatasrb,

Generally this looks ok. However I'd so much rather shove 99 light with some info rather than vs a total unknown. I.e there is no guarantee that your 3bet is profitable and no guarantee your 5bet will be profitable even if it's ok-ish vs an average opponent.

Typically vs unknowns I would look to play smaller pots where possible. I would flat preflop.

Originally posted by m3ta
shove is pretty terrible imo. call

Interesting. Care to elabourate?

well the potsize is 24bb, SB should never be calling with a dominated hand here as part of a halfway decent gameplan. BB is risking 92bb ...

Hero needs to get folds around 50% of the time to break even on the shove, still implying he lost 8bb's on the hand.

Hero can risk 9bb instead and call which might be more profitable.

Its hard to tell tho because hero 3 bet a hand he shouldnt have 3 bet in the first place vs an unkown.

So its not erally surprising all his options will yield an EV of around -8bb after he is 4 bet.

edit: assume a 30% openrasing range from the SB, Hero can get 4 bet with a range of JJ+, AKs, A7s-A2s, K7s-K4s, AKo, which is 20% ( one could make this worse for hero by adding in TT and some additional bluffs). SB can easily defend a range of TT-66,AQs-ATs,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,AQo-ATo,KJo+ by callin. He will therefore fold around 50% preflop. so you win 4bb 50%, you lose 8bb 20-25% of the time(getting 4 bet is the same as losing the hand). And I dont think we have to argue the callingrange will do pretty damn well vs 99 and on those boards the range doesnt do so hot it wont matter because Villian will allow Hero to make a profitably flop bet anyway (boards 9 high and lower, which are not that frequent anyways).

You are right that I need 50% FE, and I think I have them vs average player in NL100 (because average player 4bets aggro, especially in bb vs sb).

If he stacks TT+, AK, then It is 46 combos, so I need him to 4bet fold >=6 combos.
If he 4bet/folds KQ, AJ (which often people do and have best blockers) then it is already 32 combos. Most people do 4bet/fold KJo, KQo, AJo, ATo (and call suited), which is 48 combos, but from my experience in bb vs sb, most of people 4bet even more hands like Axs, Kxs and then I make profit in that case.

Anyway, I agree it is not clear if I make +EV move by shoving (vs unknown) but when I fold I loose 8bb. Also, if he calls me, and sees me having 99, it will be a future EV for me, when I have JJ+,AK so I think overall it is not that bad.

Thank you for your input!

I don't follow you 100%, you say he might 4bet wide but wouldn't that be good for us if we are going to 5bet shove?

By my calculations there is 25 in the pot, and hero raises 87. That means the bluff needs to work about 77% of the time assuming no equity. However hero will still have equity when called.

It's just an EV calculation from there depending on how often opponent folds to 5bets and our pot-equity when called.