QJs vs OESD vs pot sizes

mlatasrb

Joined: 01.04.2012

15.10.2013, 17:39 0

partypoker - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 255.66 BB
SB: 183.58 BB (VPIP: 28.65, PFR: 21.08, 3Bet Preflop: 4.69, Hands: 191)
BB: 30 BB (VPIP: 27.81, PFR: 17.11, 3Bet Preflop: 6.28, Hands: 660)
UTG: 101.5 BB (VPIP: 26.57, PFR: 24.48, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 149)
MP: 114.72 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 11.90, 3Bet Preflop: 13.33, Hands: 45)
CO: 193.02 BB (VPIP: 17.35, PFR: 3.06, 3Bet Preflop: 2.78, Hands: 99)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q♣ J♣

fold, MP calls 1 BB, fold, Hero raises to 4 BB, fold, fold, MP calls 3 BB

Flop: (9.5 BB, 2 players) 5♥ T♠ K♠
MP bets 9.04 BB, Hero calls 9.04 BB

Turn: (27.58 BB, 2 players) K♣
MP bets 26.22 BB, Hero calls 26.22 BB

River: (80.02 BB, 2 players) 5♣
MP bets 38 BB, Hero raises to 76 BB, fold

Spoiler

Hero wins 150.02 BB

Is call turn ok? He snap donked it and I think if he would have Kx he would stop at least for a sec, so I put him on a draw (so many draw combos) and on river he was thinking few seconds (now he had to think since he missed the draw in my eyes), and I dont see the reason to 1/2 river. My plan was to bet 1/3 on river if checked to, and since I think he has more busted draws than value combos, my raise needs to work 40% to be +EV.

what do you think?

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3 replies

_Anonymous_

15.10.2013, 18:56 0

Hi mlatasrb

As played I agree with your river raise but let's backtrack a bit.

So if you expect him to be on some sort of draw why are you calling with your weak draw (Q high, only 6 live outs if that)?

Were you planning to call and bluff him on any non spade?

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mlatasrb

Joined: 01.04.2012

Posts: 2,706

15.10.2013, 19:34 0

"So if you expect him to be on some sort of draw why are you calling with your weak draw (Q high, only 6 live outs if that)?"

I thought that my draw is ok on turn (but it is drawing dead). I expected Q and J to also be outs.
Yes, I was planning to bet 1/2 river if he checks on any card, because he could have even pure air, or A high, all gutshots. He is clearly aggro fish when he pot donks flop, and if he is aggro fish, it means he is not just value betting or with draws, but would also bet so with many trash hands imo

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_Anonymous_

16.10.2013, 15:50 0

The problem with your plan here (in my view) is that we are already facing two PSB bets which implies that he could easily ship the river.

And then we are screwed because we can't rebluff and since he is an aggro fish we can expect those river bets more often than not.

I do agree that Q/J could be outs in this example.

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