IPoker, $2/$4 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
SB: $345.60 (86.4 bb)
BB: $434.25 (108.6 bb)
UTG: $707.16 (176.8 bb)
MP: $329.62 (82.4 bb)
Hero (CO): $602 (150.5 bb)
BTN: $406 (101.5 bb)
Preflop: Hero is CO with Q
A
UTG raises to $12, MP calls $12, Hero raises to $48, 3 folds, UTG calls $36, MP calls $36
Flop: ($150) 6 J
Q
(3 players)
UTG checks, MP checks, Hero bets $72, UTG calls $72, MP folds
Turn: ($294) 7 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $152, UTG raises to $576, Hero?? (330 to call)
(MP 75/25 fish)
Villain: 29/22
25% open UTG (3.5k hands sample)
40% fold to 3bet (calls 3bets a ton, so he'll be very wide here)
46/43 fold to cbet%
48/38 ag%
28 WTS
Villain is a bit spewy. On one occasion he jamed KTs CO vs my MP open, on another one he jamed A3s BTN vs my UTG raise, this without any loose dynamics for 3betting/4betting in these positions. He also views me as quite aggressive.
At this point though, we had actually established loose dynamics for getting it in here, but with the fish in the pot he should flat his strong hands a lot more, but I honestly doubt he realizes that.
Need 26% for a call OTT.
Board: J♠6♥Q♣ 7♥
Equity Win Tie
MP2 22.66% 22.66% 0.00% { AQo }
MP3 77.34% 77.34% 0.00% { JJ, 66, QJs, AhKh, AhTh, KhTh, Th9h }
my equity goes down to ~21% if we add QQ.
19.5% when adding one combo of AA and KK.
2 combos of each makes it 18.5%
This is however the bottom of my valuebetting range, and my perceived range should be strong here. But I do however have 16 combos of AK here in my betting range which I do think he expects me to have too. And he has done some spewy moves before so I think we probably can add a few more combos of some random semibluffs in his range too, worse than those I have already included.
I think against the average reg this is a fold, but against this guy it is superclose imo, probably leaning towards a call.
Thoughts?
