I got the CUT open raise % wrong in the post 
He is actually opening 46% after 1.5k hands. So that's quite a few more aces.
I didn't consider that a better player would x behind his better Ax on the flop. Thanks.
How about a 4x pot bet on the river? Do you think any pair snaps you off verse 4x with any PP from a better player?
I went over the combos and if on the river he folds the worst pocket pairs, say only calling 76s, 88-99 and 44 to a 4x pot bet on the river. It looks a good spot to overbet.
Anyways I did some math, here it is if anyone cares.
Spoiler
On the river, lets say he is calling any pair he has up to 88. I also gave him a 99 that he may slow play a little.
Something like 99-88, 66-22,J7s,T7s,87s,76s,A7o,K7o,87o,76o he calls.
94 combos
The Ax that he folds is 150 combos.
So 80 times he calls and I lose 12.50 =1000
150 times he folds and I win 6.59 =988.5
Lets assume he doesn't cbet his better Aces on the flop, so his calling range on the river is now only 108 combos, therefore I now only win 108*6.59=711
I think the scenario where folds some of the worst PP's, 22-33,55 is likely.
Then its only 62 combos = 775
Lets say I make it 4x pot, $25
I still win the same amount when folds.
I think he'll fold just about everything but 44, 88-99, 8 combos. I lose 8 * 25 = 200
Lets say he also hero calls half his 7x hands too, 29 combos. In which case I lose 29 * 25 = 725
Now lets pretend that isntead of opening so many aces he has a more standard MP opening ranges and opens only ATo-AKo, ATs-AKs and A2s-A5s, 80 combos. 48 combos if he doesn't bet his better Aces on the flop.
His calling range is also narrower, he doesn't have alot of trash 7x, 9x. Witha 2x pot bet, it's something like 22-66, 88-99, 67s-78s, 38 combos.
I lose 38 * 12.59 = 478.42
I win 80 * 6.59 = 527
If he x his better aces on the flop I win 48*6.59 = 316
With a 4x pot bet, and checking better aces on the flop, he doesnt have A7 that he can call here, so his calling range now is only 11 combos, 44, 88-99 and 87s.
11 * 25 = 275
If he folds all but the nuts, which I think could be very likely?!, 2 combos, I only lose 13.18
If he's snapping me off with any PP as well, then I'm obviously hosed.
