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NL50 SH ZOOM OOP interesting river

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wlcKeD
Joined: 24.02.2009

BTN: $131.84 (263.7 bb)
SB: $50 (100 bb)
Hero (BB): $50 (100 bb)
UTG: $45.50 (91 bb)
MP: $51.37 (102.7 bb)
CO: $57.78 (115.6 bb) He was 4-tabling and looked like reg. No sample though.

Preflop: Hero is BB with A♦ T♠
2 folds, CO raises to $1.25, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.75

Flop: ($2.75) 3♥ K♠ J♥ (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50

Turn: ($5.75) 6♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($5.75) 3♦ (2 players)
Hero bets $4, CO raises to $17.50

If we assume that he actually IS a DECENT REG, doesn't his raise OTR look like complete BLUFF ? Wouldn't his really strong hands [which aren't that many here in the first place] raise a bit smaller, so that I could potentially call it ? Cause I almost always have something quite weakish here OTR, and since we assume he is a reg, we kinda also want to assume that he KNOWS IT, therefore - raises smaller with strong hands, so that I could potentially call it, AND, raises THIS BIG, just to get me off of my weak hand, a.k.a. BLUFFS ? What do you think ?


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5 replies
tukioppilas62
Joined: 01.01.2011

I think he playes set of threes this way and we can also expect to see a lot bluffs here too imo at 50nl. At lower limits this type of playes are pretty much always for value and I've lost a lot by hero calling.

Here I think calling Jx+ is reasonable.


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wlcKeD
Joined: 24.02.2009

Originally posted by tukioppilas62
we can also expect to see a lot bluffs here too imo at 50nl.

So yeah, that's exactly I would expect too - much MUCH more BLUFFS than value hands ... So what you'd think about RE-BLUFF shoving here ? :P I think MATH is definitely on my side here, and big time, don't even need to calculate it, I think it is quite obvious, wouldn't you agree ? :)


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

He is only repping 3X or nothing here. He probably never slowplays KK/JJ or other monsters.

Shoving here is only good if you think he'll fold 3X. Don't forget you rep a ton of air here, given all the draws bust. You don't rep KJ which would call the River raise, and you don't rep KK/JJ which would 3-bet preflop, or 66 which would fold the Flop.

Thus you also rep nothing by re-raising here.

I would consider hero-calling here with top pair. and I'm probably not leading JX too often on the River unless it's AJ.


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mlatasrb
Joined: 01.04.2012

I think it is better to cf river because we mostly have
the best hand and if we bluff all better hand call maybe some weaker ax call.
Maybe 1bb value bet to make him call many weaker hands?
Imo raise on river from regg in nl50 zoom is nearly always value, and if he
Would want to fold your busted draws he would probably min raise.
He has many 3x in range which he plays this way so it is not that he is repping
bluffs mostly

2. also i dont think that he have enough combos on flop which
he is going to give up on turn or river because board is draw
heavy and it hits your range hard so i dont expect pure bluffs.
Considering that is it better fold flop? Or even raise but only with Ahtx
and bluff turn and river on any hearts? We could raise flop kq kj, set, and also
ahx combos and call all other top pairs 2nd pairs weak fd
and qt.


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

I have to agree with not leading the River, Ace High does have a good amount of showdown value. I guess you can fold out AQ and 55 sometimes, but a good player would often
1. Not cbet 55
2. Cbet AQ and call a blank runout to bluff catch vs worse draws with no SD value


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