[Closed] It's On You: guess hero's play by 19/02 and win $50

The Set is So unlikely ... because with the flush draw on board , and such a deep stacks it is so wrong to slow play and give out a free card. and even if he is a fish and did slow play his set , he will almost definitely check raise. Flush draw is almost unlikely too . because with a flush draw and being the aggressor preflop he should go with the cbet .so I'm Assuming we are ahead at this point.

So call or shove ? I'm Going with the flat call to give him the chance of barreling the river and bluffing at it . or maybe he will assume that his AJ or AQ is good enough considering our flat , so he will even go for value ! then we can shove his bet in position.
If a spade hits , then i will just call his bet on the river as a bluff catcher ( Maybe he had the spades after all ! ... ) and no value raise .

I think his range will be :
Total air ... ( maybe an unlikely Gutshot )
AQ AJ A8
and as i said an unlikely flush draw

Yeah I kinda think the way the hand has played out, you would need to be playing for stacks at this point. Its much more likely you will be up against a suited spade Ax combo. Maybe A8o would play this line or AQo, Ajo A10o but either way, I would be confident of crushing his range. A set of 8s would be weird given the lack of a check raise on the flop.

I would be looking to get it all in on the turn with this

On the flop we set villains range on: Ax, Kx, Q8+, J8+, T8+.
On the turn hero calls the raise.
Villain thinks that we might have a FD or that we have Kx and only 1 pair.
On the turn we narrow villains range to Ax, Kx. So on the turn he wants to protect his pair of aces or his 2 pair against the FD.
It is less probable that he has a set 8 or 2. Because in that case he should have raised our bet on the flop against the FD.
It is less probable that he has a FD himself. It might be however and then his strategy might be that he takes the Ace on the turn as a possibility to let us think that he has a Ace and wants to take the pot down directly on the turn. He raises to 42, eg. 33% of his stack. This is the percentage of a cheap bluff.
(lol, villain might well have also AK, considering his actions)

If the river is a blank: I think hero has the best hand.
If villain checks, then hero can bet half of the pot for value, eg. 49,50. If villain then raises to the rest of his stack 82,25, there is the risk that he slowplayed the flop and does have a set. But considering his entire range there is a positive EV to call. And you are now pot-committed. The pot is then 230,75. So call, because you only have to put another 32,75 into this pot.
If villain bets, just call or raise for value.

If river is a spade: there is a little chance that hero is dominated. The pot is 99,50 and villain has a stack of 82,35.
If villain checks, then bet 1/3 of the pot for value. If he then shoves, fold.
If villain bets 50% of the pot or of his stack or shoves, then give up the hand and fold.
If villain bets 30% of his stack or 30% of the pot, then call.

If river is a 8 or 2: if villain checks, then check.
If villain bets 30% of his stack or of the pot, then call.
If villain bets 50% of his stack or of the pot, then fold.

Conclusion based on the actions of villain until turn: Ax with chance of AK or A8.
In this situation we didn't know if villain is a loose or a tight player, and that can make a big difference how we play the hand.

I think I'd shove in this position.

If he had a flush draw or 3 of a kinds (8's or 2's) I think he'd have re-raised on the flop. He probably has a pair of aces, (ATo+), at best AK like the hero does or possibly even A8/A2. Either way we're most likely ahead. There is also a very small chance of him slowplaying KK or having AA but I don't think it is very likely.

raise 25,00 and stack off on the river if not spade comes.

Not sure with the call pre. I don't see why CO would check flop with a set or flushdraw.
Standard play would be to shove, although there must be something weird here,

So call and let CO also bluff river.

Turn call is preferred to shoving because of deep stacksizes and getting value from worse Ax I put villain on a pocket pair/Ax/bluffs (worst case: he might be playing KK this way with a very lucky turncard)

If river blanks, call again if hero bets
If river is a spade, bluff shove to rep the flush
If river is an A or K, easy shove
If river pairs, fold to bet

If your going to run these kind of things you have to provide much more information: PLayer types, tenancies, game flow, hero's image, dynamic between both players

Otherwise its pretty pointless and reduced to random guesswork.

If im playing this hand then I guess

1) vs a fish, Shove turn, plenty of value from turned FDs FD+GS etc.
he may even be going bananas with just top pair, protecting from hero's perceived flush draws - this is why we need dynamic/gameflow info

2) Vs a reg I would call turn. On brick rivers I would make a decisions based mostly on his betsize. Folding to a shove the majority of the time, don't really expect a reg to bluff this river once we call the turn raise on this board when his nut range is so small. Maybe call all bricks and fold on offsuit Q,T,J

folding 100% to a shove on a spade.

Betting between 40-60% if he checks, smaller sized if the dynamic is right for me to rep a thin value bet and allow room for him to check shove.

Not sure shoving vs a reg achieves much. Again impossible to answer without information. But if a reg I don't expect him to call with just a draw so we only get called really by QJs,Ak,KJs,QTs,KQs,AJs, 22.88,KK,AA. We are 60/40 favorite though vs that range so it all depends on if we think he will actually call all those draws + GS

Again we also need to know his river tendancies, is he capable/likely to bluff river and turn made hands into a bluff.

raise All in

CO has never ever have seth on this hand

First he raise preflop and have on flop K high board and flush draw
and he CHACK and give us free card,Chacking here with our monster hand like seth is bad move what we do if another spade is coming?????

WE BET and he called it show us 2 thing
1. he have hand with showdown value
something like 99-QQ or A8 A2.

Or

2.He is not belive us and called with A high posibly AQ or AJ.and look to see turn card

Ace coming on the turn and he chack again and we BET again and he RAISE.
like the turn hit him good.

He can do with this for 2 reason.

1.information

If he have hand like QQ turn card is worst nightmare and he try to force us to fold Kx hand perheps even our draw,and also our bluff.On the river half of the deck is not what he want to see there.
If he got shove or call he will know that his hand is not the best hand.

2.For Value

By chacking K82 flush draw with A8 or AQ he was do this for pot control with hand that is probably best hand.with Ace his hand is just improving a lot and if he think that we are betting our flush draw and if we miss them he is not geting anything on the river if we chackback this is right move if you have AQ or A8 in your hand.

What to do

In this spot I see that vilan have 60% of the time A8
If we just call here and some killer action card is coming like Spade then what we are probably missing value,if he bluff on the turn and get called he is highly unlikly fire another one on the river,if he belive that he have best hand he will pay shove on the turn

Right move here will be shove and put him on decision

I really don't see much bluff hands in his range because no one check/ calls the flop as preflop agressor with air. So he has some showdown value on the flop, a flushdraw or a slowplayed monster. FD and Sets are not to likely. Small FD want to take down the pot on the flop with a cbet and AsX has decent showdown value, so there is no need to check/raise turn. So there are only QsXs JsXs or Ts9s as FD. There are some Sets in his range but some he would cbet and some check/raise on the flop.

His Range after the Check/Raise could be:
6 Combos of A8
3 Combos Sets (AA,KK,88,22)
1 Combo A2s
1 Combo AsKs
2,5 Combos FD

Given this Range i would shove because we loose to much value from A8 on much river cards and we can get villain to fold his equity when he has the FD.

If he is an thinking opponent he could be recognize that our perceived range missed this flop because we almost have no AA,KK or AK in our range because these hands are in our 3bet range. So he could bluff here more and i would opt for the flat and call all non spade non 8 rivers.

When he calls the flop on this board i don't expect him to have trips, due to the flush draw. And also he would more then likely raise his own flush draw, narrowing his range.
When he raises on the turn, i think he could have Ax of spades, for his own flush draw repop semi-bluff, or be bluff repping an ace card to scare our strong king, or flush draw to fold. He could also hold a weaker 2 pair which we get value from.
Therefore, i think calling here, and check calling ANY river is a fine play, to get the most out of his bluffs and weaker holdings.

Originally posted by MJPerry

Stacks:
UTG ($105.45) 105bb
CO ($131) 131bb
Hero (BTN) ($222.75) 223bb
SB ($215.40) 215bb
BB ($86.20) 86bb

Pre-Flop: ($1.50, 5 players) Hero is BTN A♥ K♥
1 fold, CO raises to $3, Hero calls $3, 2 folds

Flop: K♣ 8♠ 2♠ ($7.50, 2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $3.75, CO calls $3.75

Turn: A♦ ($15, 2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $10.50, CO raises to $42, Hero ???

What can I win?

When he calls the flop on this board i don't expect him to have trips, due to the flush draw - he would most likely donk/ check raise, And also he would more then likely lead/raise his own flush draw, narrowing his range.
When he raises on the turn, i think he could have Ax of spades, for his own flush draw repop semi-bluff (which is doubtful), or be bluff repping an ace card to scare our strong king or flush draw to fold. He could also hold a weaker 2 pair with which we get value from.
Therefore, i think calling here, and calling ANY river is a fine play, to get the most out of his bluffs and weaker holdings.

It's CO with BT, CO plays with 130bb and there is flush draw on the board.

Obviosly he represents slowplayed set which wants to get paid on river or he is flushing and wants to build a good pot so he can just pot size bet it or shove it.
River can put CO in a tough spot aswell, if there is a spade and CO has a set, its a real action killer.

IF I call I call any bet on river except if there's a spade. Then I just fold, even against 1/2 bet.
IF I shove then get value from flush draws, CO could have many 'normally''.
IF I fold I know he's a setminer and a nit.

I FOLD!!!, the reason why I fold is becouse he's a nit, it's why I just called with AKs , when he's 130bb deep on CO.
( If would 3bet and get a 4bet from blinds, it's an easy 5bet or allin for me)

We're pretty deep so doubt we're flatting just because we want to do it with our whole range. Probably the guy folds too much to 3bets so it a bit nitty pre.

On the flop, he should be betting his two pair, his 88 and his 22, I'd say his range is not the turn is lower flush draws, KK, air and maybe Ac8c (doesn't have many offsuit A8, can't have Ah or Ad and doing it with As would be pretty bad). I'm not jamming the turn as it'll fold out all the bad stuff, we'll be stuck against a much stronger range with about 40% equity. I'll call down on any river card except a spade, spades improve his range a fair amount and we're probably at the bottom of our range here. If villain checks I bet small as I don't have many bluffs.

As you called AKs pre flop in button your range looks weak
FLOP
I think he might have AQ AJ, maybe Kx (but he had to bet flop so its less often he have Kx) I dont think he could check 88 or 22 because of spades on flop
Turn
When he raises us to 42$ i think he might have smth like AQ,AJ also its good spot to bluff for our opponent, because as you called in BTN (most of aces would be 3bet pre from ur side)

Turn decision
As your range looks weak, very often our opponent might be bluffing so my decision is to call Turn and :
1) Call his shove on river (any card is good on river)
2) if he check we shove

Conclusion
I think our opponent is bluffing here most of the time but I also think less often he have AQ AJ here, so shove on turn would make him fold most of hands and we get no value for our AK, as we call Turn we give him chance to Continue his bluff and if he have AQ/AJ i dont think he might fold it as you played hide your AK pre flop
As we don't have stats about our opponent , maybe he is nit maybe he is very aggro etc. maybe he dont bluff at all, maybe he bluff to often as I do not know this, this is standard play by me.
Also sorry for my english but I think all of u will understand what I want to say

I think it would depend on the opponent. Against a rock I would probably have to fold if I know he plays his sets this way. Against everyone else it's a push on the turn as I don't like a call here due to potentially being in an awkward spot on river. So it's push or fold.

Because hero not 3bet PF OP can have Ax and FD here, because hero bets king, OP thinks Ace is better, BUT you need to know your OP info, OP can simply try to raise scary card and steal POT, best play is ALL IN, fold can be decent play if you have reads, call is the worst play here .

FOLD,villian is on AA/KK

shove and get value from worse hands. If a boat hits on the river, all smaller sets are busted