[Closed] It's On You: guess hero's play by 19/02 and win $50

Call and take note on the villain. Spot is hard without any information on villain. We get exceptional odds on a call so rarely have to be correct. The level of randomness in an unknowns game is probably good enough to allow us to see poorly played hands such as AA and missed diamonds in this spot. (Particularly if villain turns out to be a fish). We get some nice reads in this spot by calling. PF range, how villain played trips/fd on this baord txture blabla. So I think overall calling is best. I think shoving is suicide villain isn't capped here at all he can have everything from air to nfd to nuts. We don't get an amazing price, we don't fold all that many better hands and we learn nothing about villains play.

I'd expect most value hands to raise the turn, 7x, 56.

The small bet on the river doesn't make a lot of sense to me with any value hands. 44 is about the only one. But If slow played this far, why donk the river instead of x/r?

And why donk so small?

Given his river bet, I'm assuming villain is a fish and most of the time has made his flush. But he also has busted FDs, gutshots, overpairs etc and given pot odds it's an ez call imo.

i'm just calling because he can have anything.. prob does have the house so a call is good for what he bets here

Call the river. I think he would be raising 7x and 56 on the turn, considering the draw heavy board. Hero is not repping to hard so I guess our opponent could be turning a lot of missed FDs to a bluff on the river. His range is polarized so its a matter of previous reads, if there are any..

CALL. Big showdown value here.

In my opinion, the villain here either has a monster or is bluffing. 7X hands are unlikely since they would raise flop or at least turn, and that basically leaves 77, 44 and 73 in his monster range. Since we don't have history with our villain we shouldn't underrate him and I think 73 should be crossed out of his range here. That leaves us with 77 and 44 against his bluff range which could include 22-33,55-66,88-TT(JJ). So bluff is much more likely.

But depending on the villain is his range. Maybe he's a very cautious player with 7X, maybe he likes to play tricky and smooth call QQ-AA preflop, maybe <insert yourself>...

Push! If it haz a fullhauz I'll just open another tourney.

2nd hand, fold vs random, I believe that this line took by a random player is pretty strong, he has at least 4x too often to call be profitable imo.

fold, there is not that much we are ahead of with that flush except complete air. Looks like player might been slow playing hes trips at least Baluga theorem gives indication on that

I think I'm just calling this hand on river. It could be a cheap bluff with hands like :diamond:, overcards. On the contrary, some slowplays are still in his range, like 7x and flopped set. Hard to believe we have any value on river raise as it will just make him to fold any hand we would beat.

So: No value in a raise, not strong enough to raise, not weak enough to fold. I call river and take a note.

First hand of a tourney...simple call for me. Don't need to risk all-in and possible elim on first hand with 2 pair on board.

River is a call.
Villains range is small pocket pairs 22-99, and flush draw, which you both beat on the river. 7x is possible but unlikely.

Call

FOLD.

we dont see villains stats so we cant put him before the flop. But lets say he is a descent player. He calls our rase before the flop so we asume he has like A8o-AQo, A2s-AQs, KT+ QJ+ 22-JJ maybe some suted connectors something like that. asuming that he will 3-betbetter hands

the vilain should stay in the hand only with. 77, 44, JJ+ after the flop.
explanation:
With flush draw: some fishes would make a call but its not profitable in this situation in the long run. So we discard all suted diamonds.

With low to mid pockets: you want to win the pot on the flop right away and just calling doesnt make sence even once, because any over card would force you to fold later. So we discard mid to low pockets. The possible play would be raise / fold, but definetelly not the call.

Even JJ+ is questionable because the flush draw is possible and oponent should protect his hand from flush draws but whatever we keep those in range here.

The turn hero makes another call. Now it really does nor make sence to just call even with JJ+ because there is double flush draw on the board. So the only cards tat he can call is 44 or 77.

the river. The flush completes so villain is betting for value to get paid from those flushes.

Can it be a bluff bet? asuming we missed something and he is holding JJ.
he calls a flop and a turn with possibly better hand just to bluff the river on that scary board? no way...

conclusion: villain had a full house or quads from the beggining and he was indusing bluffs on the flop and turn, didnt want to make a hero to fold. On the river its a value bet exctracting money from possible flushes, like in this situation.

First of all I want to point out that you copy-pasted the first hand info

"Check out the first hand below - you have until Monday, February 17 to make your guess in the forum."

This is the 2nd hand.
Plus, on the news panel you wrote that the river bet was 200, while here is 400. I'll take 400 as the true one since it's on the forums.

Short Answer: Call

Here we don't have any information on villain. At all.
We don't even know what kind of tournament it is, what stake...
And given BB's passive line we have no idea of what that could be until river.

So I can only proceed by exclusion.

First action I feel to exclude is a raise.
Despite being a big fan of extracting value with anything over two-pair, this ain't cash, but a tournament and it's the 1st hand, so we don't wanna leave soon and we can't know if villain is fish enough to be calling with anything worse than our hand, in case it's a fish, and we don't know that.
Plus, what can we extract from with a raise in such a case? 65?

Very tempted to fold, since in my experience fish rarely bluff on the river, and if they do, or if they have a hand they don't want to fold but think it's beaten like 65 in this case , then they bet small.
But this river bet isn't small, it's an average one I'd say, 400 on a 690 pot.
But again having no info on opponent whatsoever, isn't a fold with a flush just simply too weak?
Too many times I saw absurd play on weird boards to make us fold, or for who knows what reason.

So, the only option left, is Call.
Also considering that 4x and 7x are pretty unlikely in general.

It should be a fold here.

with the double paired board and the completed flushdraw, villain will have a lot od better FDs and som full houses. I don't think he will bet river wtih a lot of worse hands than ours.

I would call as his line wouldn't be like that on flop with a 7x or 4x. I think he either has a straight with 56s a missed diamonds draw, or a pocket pair - which is unlikely. I would just call to avoid a situation where he has A7 or A4 and busts me.

Here it is quite possible that Villain has a full-boat especially when he takes this ch/c ch/c donk line. It really depends on the reads we have on opponent and whether he is aggressive or passive. Against a passive station I think fold would be correct, but against an unknown it a bit complicated. There is a slight chance that he now donks with a missed FD to represent a boat, I also think that there is quite a few Ax hands that he thinks he might be good with, and also some small pocket pairs like 55 or 66. I think the right decision is to call half of the time and half of the time fold. We beat all of his bluffs apparently and some weak-hands which he is now overplaying. If there is only 1 answer possible I choose a call

You have to consider in which stage/stadium/fase of the tournement you are. This is only the first hand.
If you call and you loose then you have lost half of your stack and are you for a part already out of the tournament. The risk is too big that you are dominated. Don't spoil your chips in this first hand. There is no necessity to put half of your stack on risk.

Because this is the first stage you have to fold here. There will be plenty of better opportunities to come on which you can spend your chips.

If this were later on in the tournement then you should not fold.

The range of villain can be A4, A7. Less probable are Txs, Jxs, Qxs, Kxs, Axs, because with only a runner-runner FD he would not call on the flop.
He can have an overpair TT+. And just smooth-call on the flop and turn to build up the pot.

The actions of villain represent A7. Mediocre card to call with on the preflop-open-raise. He has to spend only 40 = 2bb so he calls cheaply with a speculative medicocre hand.
Made hand on flop and turn, he flat-calls to build up the pot.
On river the nuts and he bets 200 for value. He doesn't make a big bet in order to try that we call.

He bets 1/3 of the pot (if you take the version 200 and pot is 690)(mistake in the text, the other text says 400 and pot is 690, so this is a bit unclear). 1/3 of the pot can also be a cheap bluff.
He has an overpair and wants to represent that he has made a flush.
This is possible, but i still would fold because the risk is too big for the first hand in the tournement.

hero raise pot.

CALL rvr bet - villain could have any hand rly, and hard to put him on range given his passive play thru'out the hd
- we still have abt 50 BBs (playable stack) if we are wrong, and we are getting almost 5/2 odds on the call (490/200)
- (most villain - value hands would raise the turn imo with 2 flsh-drws on brd)
- no value in raising rvr as very few worse hands are calling, and a fold is too tight imo, given the odds, and fact that we have invested 20% of our stack before the rvr bets