[Closed] NL100 FR - AA, valuebetting the river

flop i would bet ~16$ or maybe more; to many hands you don't wanna see

river without stats i probaply check/behind but i think the riverbet is ok.

If he is the passive type of player, you don't beat that much here. He could call you down to the turn with Axs, 99+, JTo, QTo, KJs, KQo. He is folding all the hands you beat except KQ and AQ maybe, that is ~10% of his range. He is probably calling with two pairs or better and end up winning the whole pot 60% of the time. So your equity might be something like:

EVshove = 10%*100BB+30%*50BB-60%*100BB << EV check behind

If he is some sort of a TAG, well I don't see what hands he could possibly play this way... maybe AQ but he would definitely not pay the river bet.

So I would check behind.

I bet $16 on the flop, something like 35 on the turn and then I have an easy shove on the river. As played it depends on the type of opponent. Against a passive nit I check, against a tag or fish I shove, he is not going to fold AQ or KQ here after calling me twice.

Best regards,
TribunCaesar

Yeah, I guess I could've made my bets a little bit bigger, that's true.

Oh, I forgot to say, villain is unknown here.

@cindy: I think it's very unlikely he'd play two pair or better checking all three streets, don't you think? (unless he's very passive, but he's unknown here.)

well I guess you're right, I'm on a 7BI downswings, guess it is why I was inclined to check behind and see monsters everywhere

Against an unknown I still think I check behind, only huge fish would call three streets of bet with a queen here, don't you think? Then you should have this read to value bet river.

As played, yes. If you bet more on earlier streets just shove it.

Originally posted by cindy1985
Against an unknown I still think I check behind, only huge fish would call three streets of bet with a queen here, don't you think? Then you should have this read to value bet river.

True, I didn't have any reads there. But IMO he's most likely on a busted draw or a Q after checking to me on the river.

If he's on a busted draw he's folding anyway (unless he's very stupid... and yes, I've seen a player stupid enough to call pushes on the river with busted draws... but just once... unfortunately :P).

If he's on a Q he's probably not calling (unless he's a big fish as you said), but I have to give him the opportunity to make a mistake here, and the only way to do so is to bet.

Well, that's what I think... that and the fact that it's really unlikely he's holding a better hand made me shove there. What do you think? Would like to hear your thoughts about it.

@Tribun: Oh, your thoughts as well too. ♦

OFF-TOPIC@Cindy: Downswing huh? I know what that feels like, went through a 14BI one last month, even had to go down to NL50. But now I'm back to NL100 and winning.

Pot is big, he won´t play better hand to c/c all three streets, so you´re ahead here probably 99% times. So I don´t see no reason why not to shove river for value. Let him to make hero call with QK or some other hand.

with 2 pairs vs aggressor on such board i would also just call u. it depends on your stats but he can put you on JJ+ with such preflop raise and ofcourse if u got set or you wont slowplay it in such flop. really depends on the oponent and ofcourse on ur stats

well I like your argument, we have to give our opponents the opportunity to make mistakes. Also if he folds no one would know your hands, which is kind of a good thing too.

Still, like silent21 said, someone holding JT/QT/QJ might call you PF and call you down (afraid of trips, str8, or trying to trap - since you doubled barrel he probably hopes somehow you're going to fire again), and this it is a big part of his calling range. So if you exclude busted draw, I really think you don't beat such a big part of his "calling the river" range.

off topic: I'm on a huge downswing now, somewhere near 12BI, I might have some tilt issue as well (in particular with TT type of hands :)) probably cause I've loosen up PF way too much, I'm going back to some nitty stats soon

I agree with TribunCaesar in such that you should bet more on prev. streets - then its an easy shove. In this spot, I'd shove against a station, but not against a solid reg. What do you think will call us here? His range is comprised of a) pure draws (OESDs and FDs), b) Combodraws and c) 2 pairs.

a) no hand will call a shove...
b) Hands like T9,J9 won't call. AQ,KQ will call, but those hands are not very likely given the preflop limps. KJ/AJ may call, but may also fold.
c) TJ,QJ,QT - all hands will call a shove - and beat you

To be a bet for value, we need more combinations that call and are worse than calling and beating us - I don't think this is given here.