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nl200 cool shoving spot?

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eszibit
Joined: 10.12.2007

Poker Stars, $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

CO: $233.74 (116.9 bb)
Hero (BTN): $200 (100 bb)
SB: $222.77 (111.4 bb)
BB: $186.56 (93.3 bb)
UTG: $300.13 (150.1 bb)
MP: $200 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with A J
UTG folds, MP raises to $6, CO folds, Hero calls $6, SB folds, BB calls $4

Flop: ($19) 3 A K (3 players)
BB checks, MP bets $12, Hero calls $12, BB folds

Turn: ($43) 4 (2 players)
MP bets $26, Hero calls $26

River: ($95) K (2 players)
MP bets $52, Hero calls $52

Results:

Spoiler

$199 pot ($3 rake)
Final Board: 3 A K 4 K
Hero mucked A J and lost (-$96 net)
MP showed Q A and won $196 ($100 net)

Was tired and called because..derp

oponent is reg 28/20 cb flop 80% and turn 25% (8) 300 hands so small sample.

should this be a shove on the river cuz i don't think he is bluffing enough to bluff catch but i block the AK/AA combos?


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4 replies
ciachooooo
Joined: 02.01.2010

what range do you expect him to b/f here?


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eszibit
Joined: 10.12.2007

AT-AQ.

So we don't have a bluffing range here then?


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mesisification
Joined: 05.08.2011

I don't think that villain would even bet AT on the river. What he would try to get value from?

By shoving we would fold out AQ and maybe AJ if he valuebets it. If we are sure that villain folds those then shoving would be good, no?

Edit. I made some calculations for fun. If villains betting range OTR is AA/KK/AK/44/33 and AQ and villain folds AQ to shove then shoving would be -ev. However if villain bets AJ OTR or bluffs sometimes then shoving would be good.

I would not shove since villain might not bet AJ OTR and I don't think he would bluff here very often + he might call with AQ sometimes.


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

If he has AT-AQ here a lot why would you jam? Easy call to win vs AT and split vs AJ. You might fold out AQ only, but you are assuming that he never ever has nuts here which is a wrong assumption IMO.

Of course if you felt that he never has boats here and would fold 100% then jamming would be the most +EV. You don't rep KX here cos KX doesn't call twice in a 3way pot. AK would often 3bet in BU vs MP. You can't rep 44 too which leaves you with 33


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