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NL100 AA vs nit/ugly runout

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Yozan
Joined: 01.01.2010

V is: 17/13/5.5/2.1k hands.
fcbet: 58(43), 25(4), 0(1)
rcbet: 7, BIP OTT: 71(7)
AF: 2.7/1.9/2.3 ; BRiver: 34
WTSD 28, WWSF 44

BB is a fish.

BB: $76.95 (77 bb)
UTG: $107 (107 bb)
Hero (MP): $204.96 (205 bb)
CO: $105.18 (105.2 bb)
BTN: $101.75 (101.8 bb)
SB: $41.38 (41.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A♣ A♥
UTG folds, Hero raises to $3, CO calls $3, 2 folds, BB calls $2

Flop: ($9.50) 4♣ 8♣ 9♦ (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $7.12, CO calls $7.12, BB folds

Turn: ($23.74) 5♥ (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $13.87, Hero calls $13.87

River: ($51.48) 4♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $32.61, Hero ???


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5 replies
double2
Joined: 04.11.2008

I think we have the best hand on the river super duper often, he raises sets on the flop almost always .

We block missed FDs so I would value bet for sure.


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eszibit
Joined: 10.12.2007

Bet/fold river? We block the nutflushdraw so don't know if he bluffs too much on the river ( or at all ) ,sets should raise flop or turn ..and we even beat 89 that he fels is not strong enough to raise flop with.


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Yozan
Joined: 01.01.2010
mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

Preflop: CO's range looks like 22-QQ, some strong suited broadways like AJs, KQs, and AQ. He has very few speculative holdings.

Maybe he folds the smaller pocket pairs,
QQ-66, AJs+, KQs, AQo+ (6%)

Flop: Bet is standard esp with fish in hand

Turn: I don't get the pot control. Yes he's nitty but he doesn't have too many bluffs.

Villain's range comprises few speculative hands, and many mid pairs. This looks like a negative free roll spot where villain just bets stronger hands and checks back weaker hands for pot control.

I would bet the Turn and River small, halfpot.

We don't really want to check-call as it seems like a negative free roll. At the same time I feel like you have 3 streets of value, but you need to make your bet small to induce a light call. I don't think this guy is going to bluff raise since he's a nit.

Betting also helps you to define your hand against a nit. This may not be the best reason to bet, but against straight forward opponents it's a good strategy and also it's not as if you have no value with betting. Snapfold vs a raise, if he calls AA is probably still the best hand and you can bet again on the River half pot.


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double2
Joined: 04.11.2008

I totally missed that Hero c/c turn. I assumed we bet turn.


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