AA turn fold 30$ 6max

I really hate folding overpairs vs droolers. But I can't find a hand we beat unless he is completely bluffing. I think this is his value line. Probably a flush or a Queen. Nice turn fold.

worse case scenario: our opponent have nuts(KdJd, Qx..) and we have ~25% equity and good pot odds / implied odds.

best case scenario: opponent is crazy random fish spewing chips and we have him crushed with 100% equity.

imo its horrible fold.. worse fold i have ever seen in HJ forum. Imo its call, and i cant believe how you can fold here.

we beat some of his value range KK, JJ, 99, 88

I dont see passive fish betting twice 88 on this board for value,let alone 2/3 on this turn - quite ulikely at best.
What is his bluffing range here on the turn other than total air? I think he has Qx or flush here like 95% of the time, especially with these stats..

I think he has Qx or flush here like 95% of the time,

i disagree.

KK, JJ, AT, KT, T7 (likely) (39)
JT, T9, 88, 89, KJ, 99 (less likely) (66)
+ some insane spews (even less likely but possible) (~2%)

Qx and flush (8xKQ, 8xQJ, 6xQT, KdJd, Kd9d, Kd8d, Kd6d, Kd5d, Kd4d, Kd3d, Kd2d, Jd9d, Jd8d, 9d8d (very possible) (33)

(8Q9, 8Q8, 6Q7, 10Q2-6s, 6xJd7-d, 6d5d ) less likely (39)
+ some insane value hands that have 75% vs us (2d3d etc.. ) (~2%)

other possible nut combos:
3x 77, 1x QQ, 3xTT

i definitly agree that he have strong hand here often.. but definitly not 95% of the time. + we still have to consider we have decent equity vs his "nuts"

T7 is a counterferited two pair so its far from nuts.
As i pointed out someone with >35% gap in vpp and pfr and 1.2 af i see as passive and will not beet 88 99 JJ TT 2/3 on this turn board for value IMO.

I will leave it at that, i guess we agree to disagree

As i pointed out someone with >35% gap in vpp and pfr and 1.2 af i see as passive

you have 36 hands on your opponent. if we use bayesian estimators for small samplesizes to adjust hud stats, we will see only small changes in our default strategy, that we should use against unknown opponents.

And betsizing tells are not as relevant aswell because of that. We have very little information about our opponent so we cant make strong estimations about his ranges with different betsizes.

saying our opponent is passive and have only value in his range because of some gap in vpip/pfr and low af. on SAMPLE 36 hands is completly out of reality level of thinking.

badly interpreted stats.. most aggresive guy in universe can have 1.2 af on sample of 36 hands.

imo its totally insane to fold AdA here and i dont see any logical explanation in this situation.