NL50 ZOOM set facing na big bet on the river

Hi,

With a set this is a default go broke situation. He's betting many worse Kx here. In fact I would raise river for value since there are so many Kx combinations that we are ahead of compared to combinations that we lose like AA KK or AK.

Thanks
Cutegoldfish

What If villains rarely cbets 2nd pairs in Axx? Could we make this assumption based on his CB%? Would it be rather a fold then?

A river raise looks a little overplay?

I count

3 AA
6 AK
1 kk

Total 10

6 KTs-KQs
6 kqo

Total 12

I'd think it would be a little optimistic to think villain would be betting even half his Kx below AK on the flop OOP into 2 people.
Could probably narrow that down to something like 2 combos conservatively?

It's pretty hard to find bluffs too. Probably only about 5 missed fd's. Not sure if he takes this line with much else considering his range is so A heavy.

But yeah, I'd just be going broke on the flop anyways.

Hi eskavus,

firstly even if hes just betting Kx i think we are still going broke profitably. and with full houses in 100bb stacks we simply dont fold in 90% of all situations.

and if he doesn't bet 2nd pairs, i dont think hes betting only Kx here, hes also probably betting some flush draws some gut shots and some random bluffs. a profitable call for sure with a set/FH

Thanks
Cutegoldfish

Hi jules,

you are right on the combination, i agree it could be a little thin. but i think we should attempt to show aggression in thin situations. remember the profit in poker comes mostly from making your opponent fold his equity. with raising 66 with is marginally ahead here for value, he now gets confused with Kx and might actually fold an Ax if he played it this way (no difference to us with 66 vs Ax). but then we can throw in some bluffs like J :heart:Q sometimes to balance our river raising range and you will be surprised to see some folds.

Thanks
Cutegoldfish