55 set vs 3barel

Really easy vshove for me. I'd shove any sets and maybe AJ, but that's close.

If we shove, we basically only get called by 33 (all the time) and AJ (part of the time, i think it is actually b/f river for him)and he obv calls all hands that beat us, AA, JJ, 88 are all pretty reasonable.
I think we might be value-owning ourself.
I shoved it ingame, but was not sure afterwards

Yes but in a set over set situation it's a simple cooler, we'll get paid the same way when we have the overset.
Also AJ will I think always call us, and sometimes we'll get herocalls from Ax hands. If he always folds any other Ax hands here then we can play this line as a bluff day and night since he only calls with sets or AJ and we can turn our mid pairs into a bluff on the river. He also might be bluffing sometimes because the runout is perfect for that but it doesn't really matter.

So at first I'm shoving my sets on this river and if I get more folds and never see him calling AK, AQ type of hands, I will raise river with mid pairs and call my bottom sets only.

Heh idk - can we definetly put even that much AJ in his UTG raise early on? Might be AJs only.

And then if you think he bet/folds AJ otr then calling is quite clearly best - also since situation reversed he likely lets you stack him with AA when he has 55.

If the flop was a bit more drawy I think it becomes closer.

agree with that, we can not add all of AJo for villain. If we just add 3 combos of AJo we have no value in shove:

Asztal: 8♣5♦3♠ J♣ A♠
       Részesedés   Nyert  Osztozás
MP2        60.00%  60.00%     0.00% { AA, JJ, 88, 55, 33, AJs, AhJd, AsJd, AsJh }
MP3        40.00%  40.00%     0.00% { 5h5s }

he has a very loose stat on a big sample. I think it's not completely unreasonable to give him AJ when he plays 23/20. I know it's early stage, but still.

I have almost similar loose stats, but I snap-openfold AJo from UTG 100bb deep preante.

Originally posted by AceSteph
Yes but in a set over set situation it's a simple cooler, we'll get paid the same way when we have the overset.
Also AJ will I think always call us, and sometimes we'll get herocalls from Ax hands. If he always folds any other Ax hands here then we can play this line as a bluff day and night since he only calls with sets or AJ and we can turn our mid pairs into a bluff on the river. He also might be bluffing sometimes because the runout is perfect for that but it doesn't really matter.

So at first I'm shoving my sets on this river and if I get more folds and never see him calling AK, AQ type of hands, I will raise river with mid pairs and call my bottom sets only.

agree with this

i think board run down is good or him to bluff buff value/or bluff bet river, in game i probably shove but when i think about it i like to shove here with 87 type of hands more then with kinda set but i do think that he will call AK here like 80% of time and more

btw did he call/what he have?

Hi all,

Originally posted by AceSteph
Yes but in a set over set situation it's a simple cooler, we'll get paid the same way when we have the overset.
Also AJ will I think always call us, and sometimes we'll get herocalls from Ax hands. If he always folds any other Ax hands here then we can play this line as a bluff day and night since he only calls with sets or AJ and we can turn our mid pairs into a bluff on the river. He also might be bluffing sometimes because the runout is perfect for that but it doesn't really matter.

So at first I'm shoving my sets on this river and if I get more folds and never see him calling AK, AQ type of hands, I will raise river with mid pairs and call my bottom sets only.

This is bad reasoning. We should instead look at his river b/c range as OP has, and evaluate our equity vs it. If it is over 50% once we weight villain's tendencies to bet/call AJ etc, then we should shove. If it is not, then we should call. Not a spot we should look at GTO or balance.

@onetwo78: that seems reasonable. It looks like a call to me.

Rebuz: I shoved and he had rivered top set