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NL100 - KK overpair on wet board OOP - Is there any value in betting river?

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0Arpi0
Joined: 07.02.2010

iPoker - €1 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 192.95 BB (VPIP: 35.29, PFR: 11.76, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 18.68, PFR: 14.44, 3Bet Preflop: 2.56, Hands: 91)
MP: 67.32 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 26.67, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 15)
CO: 53.55 BB (VPIP: 20.90, PFR: 18.31, 3Bet Preflop: 8.65, Hands: 500)
BTN: 137.85 BB (VPIP: 19.80, PFR: 11.88, 3Bet Preflop: 4.08, Hands: 101)
Hero (SB): 116.25 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K♣ K♦

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2 BB, Hero raises to 7 BB, fold, BTN calls 5 BB

Flop: (15 BB, 2 players) Q♠ J♣ 9♦
Hero bets 10.9 BB, BTN calls 10.9 BB

Turn: (36.8 BB, 2 players) 2♠
Hero bets 25.76 BB, BTN calls 25.76 BB

River: (88.32 BB, 2 players) 8♣
Hero checks, BTN checks

Please note that iPoker FAST hands are 4.5handed on average so the stats are distorted.

I bet flop and turn to charge the draw+pair combos. I imagine that I would receive a raise from a 2pair+ hand either on flop or turn. I dont how often will this be true since villain can simply call down with 2pair+ too - the stacks will be in by the river. Do you think that in spots like these 2pair+ raises on flop/turn on average?

What I kinda dont like about checking the river is that anything worse will check back and anything better will probably bet. On the other hand even if I bet probably everything worse will fold and only better will call. Do you agree with this?

Last but not least: What would you do if you would face a river jam?

Thanks.


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3 replies
GingerKid
Joined: 05.08.2007

Hi,
I think that most of regs will raise flop or turn to protect. Also at could raise or fold turn. TQs, JTs, T9s, TT got there (15 combos) plus he could slowplay some. So we need him to call all AQ, KQ 18 combos to make value bet, but since he is likely to fold some of those it is check imo. I would expect him to bet mostly better hands and we would need him to turn hands like AJ into bluff to make a call on river so i would c/f. On river you can defend vs shove QJ, QQ, JJ which block his Tx so KK should be the buttom of range (even though it blocks KTs)


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Coach
w34z3l
Joined: 03.08.2009

Hey 0Arpi0,

Preflop/flop/turn look fine.

River is likely just a x/f here. I agree with your comments that most worse hands check back - but also agree that probably not enough worse hands are calling here if we bet for value ourself. If we fire river here we are essentially bluffing.

However we still beat some of the hands in our opponents river check-back range so I think it makes sense to x/f KK here. We still have hands like QQ/JJ in our range along with some 2pair combos so we should feel pretty comfortable about ditching one-pair hands to a river jam.


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0Arpi0
Joined: 07.02.2010

Thanks guys. Really insightful comments from both of you.


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