88 3rd set vs cold 3bet

Hey GingerKid,

Preflop overcall is fine.

I would generally just check this flop since it's dry and hope CO decides to cbet.

Seems a pretty tight turn fold, even if his range is KK-QQ,44,KQs,KQo we have to continue. If we take out all 7 combos of KQo and leave the 2 combos of KQs we still have 44% equity and technically have a pot-odds call.

Potentially even stuff like K8s or K4s in his range when he opens from CO.

Yes I think I missplayed the turn. The biggest reason why I think I missplayed is that he looks as a fishy player, seeing his 3bet stat and gap between VPIP and PFR, which means he is more likely to check back 44, KQ and then overplay KQ, K8, Q8, so it should be easy stack off vs him. Vs reg who would understand that KQ, K8, Q8 is overplay, I think it is more like fold.

Actually I wanted to shove, was thinking longer and timed out exactly when wanted to call Usually I am not able to make such a nitty folds.

Yup, if the guy has all combos of KQo we should have over 50% equity vs his range and can just ship turn for value. (Assuming he doesn't raise/hero-fold anything)

Assuming we have slightly less than 50% makes more sense just to call down - it'll be ok thanks to pot-odds.

if he always goes all in, and I think he goes nearly always, then calling turn and calling river all in, is the same as calling direct shove from villian, or going all in ourself. This would change if villian somehow realizes his 2 pairs is not good anymore, or he bluffs which happens really rare, so we can approximate our pot odds as going alll in.

Originally posted by GingerKid
if he always goes all in, and I think he goes nearly always, then calling turn and calling river all in, is the same as calling direct shove from villian, or going all in ourself. This would change if villian somehow realizes his 2 pairs is not good anymore, or he bluffs which happens really rare, so we can approximate our pot odds as going alll in.

It's different. Because there is a possibility opponent doesn't barrel turn and river with 100% frequency.

Even if it's his plan to barrel with 100% frequency he might get disconnected, or perhaps a nuclear missile collides with his house. As such his river barrel stat will be <100%. We get to see a showdown for cheaper in a spot where we have <50% equity.

So jamming for value when equity is <50% violates a fundamental principle. As for calling, we have pot odds, we don't need to be an equity favourite.