50e 2x chance river bluff

Joined: 10.01.2012

19.07.2014, 21:02 0

Hi, what do u think about turning this hand OTR into bluff?
Villain is winning reg ( 200k profit) , we have blocker on nuts and his hand looks like 2p/weak flush so we wont be good enough to make profitable call here. If so what sizing i should use?

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NL Holdem $60(BB) Poker Stars Game#118967306661

chrstrts ($10,570)
wack2daworm ($9,835)
LazyGrind ($10,525)
mikulitafr ($9,935)
bonjour72s ($8,560)

chrstrts posts (SB) $30
wack2daworm posts (BB) $60

Dealt to LazyGrind A :club: K :heart:
LazyGrind raises to $180
fold, fold, fold,
wack2daworm calls $120
FLOP ($390) 6 :heart: K :club: Q :club:
wack2daworm checks
LazyGrind bets $180
wack2daworm raises to $575
LazyGrind calls $395
TURN ($1,540) 6 :heart: K :club: Q :club: 7 :club:
wack2daworm bets $960c
LazyGrind calls $960
RIVER ($3,460) 6 :heart: K :club: Q :club: 7 :club: J :spade:
wack2daworm bets $1,510
LazyGrind ?

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3 replies

chenny8888

Joined: 03.10.2007

Posts: 17,729

20.07.2014, 07:09 0

Hi all,

I like around 4800 here, +1 for raise > call. When choosing to make a bluff here, I like to exploit a couple timing tell things, and I feel it is quite important. However your opponent may not pay enough attention for them to matter THAT much in the early stages.

One (and I'm balanced here instead of exploitative): make SURE you call the turn slowly. Pot is getting big-ish and if we snapcall your hand looks exactly like what it is, one pair with NFD. In fact if we snapcall turn raise river is prboably -EV vs an observant opponent.

Two: you can be exploitative and raise the river fast-ish, looks a lot stronger and pairs turned into bluffs usually think about it. I wouldn't worry about this much and meh.

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TheLazyGrinder

Joined: 10.01.2012

Posts: 7

21.07.2014, 11:18 0

thx sounds reasonable

But what would u think about shoving river? We maximalize our EV when we h ave nuts as well as we have max. FE when we bluff. And we are quite balance in this spot since we still have 9 combos nuts hand ( A2cc-AJcc except A7) And we can bluff there AcKx and possibly AcJx which is 6 combos

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chenny8888

Joined: 03.10.2007

Posts: 17,729

23.07.2014, 13:28 0

I think a shove river accomplishes as much as a 4800 raise, except that with a shove we can credibly represent the naked ace blocker bluff a bit more often. As a result in a vacuum I like our smaller raise better, actually.

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