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AQo in SB vs maniac PFR

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ClerkenwellBoi
Joined: 15.02.2013

PokerStars - $0.10/$0.20 - Holdem - 10 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 22 BB (VPIP: 76.19, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
UTG: 5.7 BB (VPIP: 71.43, PFR: 23.81, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
UTG+1: 4.5 BB (VPIP: 22.17, PFR: 0.48, 3Bet Preflop: 0.52, Hands: 629)
UTG+2: 18.25 BB (VPIP: 24.25, PFR: 9.30, 3Bet Preflop: 3.28, Hands: 401)
MP: 17.5 BB (VPIP: 57.14, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
MP+1: 12.9 BB (VPIP: 26.54, PFR: 11.00, 3Bet Preflop: 3.54, Hands: 2,155)
MP+2: 34.65 BB (VPIP: 28.66, PFR: 5.74, 3Bet Preflop: 2.05, Hands: 472)
CO: 36.3 BB (VPIP: 57.14, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
BTN: 16.5 BB (VPIP: 33.82, PFR: 7.35, 3Bet Preflop: 3.33, Hands: 68)
Hero (SB): 62.6 BB

Hero posts SB 0.25 BB, BB posts BB 0.5 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 0.75 BB) Hero has Q♦ A♥

UTG raises to 1 BB, fold, UTG+2 raises to 1.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 1.25 BB, fold, UTG raises to 2 BB, UTG+2 calls 0.5 BB, Hero calls 0.5 BB

Flop: (6.5 BB, 3 players) T♣ 8♦ 5♦
Hero checks, UTG bets 0.5 BB, UTG+2 raises to 1 BB, fold, UTG raises to 1.5 BB, UTG+2 raises to 2 BB, UTG calls 0.5 BB

Turn: (10.5 BB, 2 players) J♠
UTG bets 1 BB, UTG+2 calls 1 BB

River: (12.5 BB, 2 players) 9♥
UTG bets 0.7 BB and is all-in, UTG+2 calls 0.7 BB

First thing to say, I wonder if I should have probably just folded this preflop as UTG+2 has already shown himself to be a pretty tight player and so I was very likely dominated by his 3bet range. The problem was that I was so focused on UTG that I allowed my concentration to slip and clicked that call button far too automatically!

This being said, when I tried running the figures through equilab and what a likely 3bet range might be, it still seems that I had the right equity to at least see the flop. I wonder if I got that maths right ? ?(

And although I had very few hands on UTG, he had already shown himself to be a loose maniac and in the space of the brief hands I'd already seen, was raising absolutely everything with no relation to what was happening on the board.

So once I'd called, I guess I felt pretty married to my hand. But was I right to just fold there on the flop with only overcards and as it turned out, a BD straight draw?

You can imagine my dismay as I watched the turn and river unfurl and see what might have been so I guess I was trying to reassure myself that I did the right thing on the flop and cut my losses before more maniac raising and me OOP and not getting the right odds.

Those 'what might have beens' are in poker, as in life, always so hard to bear! :rolleyes:


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3 replies
YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

The flop is probably a fold since you are caught in the middle. You know it's going to be four small bets to see the next card, so the immediate odds of 8:1, or something like that, aren't the true odds. For the same reason, I'd devalue the backdoors. The turn might become expensive too.

Neither folding or calling preflop can be a big mistake. But here you have 400+ hands on UTG and he seems tight. On the other hand, he should isolate the maniac lightly if he is a good player, perhaps as lightly as he can open-raise himself. The first raise provides some leverage, increasing the chances of him getting it heads up versus the maniac.

After guessing the ranges (your guess is as good as anybody else's), I'd say you need slightly more than 33% equity 3-ways. You have a discount, but you don't have position. Also, if you play, think about capping. By calling, your perceived range may be capped (unless you are known to never cap). A flop c-bet will be raised by the maniac, and if you are lucky, the UTG + 2 then folds.

I'd cap and c-bet flop, but only on a sunny day.


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ClerkenwellBoi
Joined: 15.02.2013

As always, thank you for clarifying matters greatly! Not to mention reassuring me that in spite of my very loose preflop call, I cut my losses correctly....even though with the great advantage of hindsight, it would have actually ended up a tasty win :)

Cheers!

Charlie


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ClerkenwellBoi
Joined: 15.02.2013

Just one more thing though - may I ask one question about something that I am not sure what you meant. Sorry if this is a stupid question but just put it down to me still being something of a beginner when it comes to such things! So hopefully you won't mind me asking for clarification...

When you say -

Also, if you play, think about capping. By calling, your perceived range may be capped (unless you are known to never cap).

Does this mean that if I cap, my opponent will then perceive the range of hands that I would cap with to be the big power hands? And likewise, if I only call then he will assume that my hand is weaker than the sort of hands that I cap with....and therefore hands that he is much more likely to dominate?

Did I get that right? Or does it mean something else?

Sorry if I am asking a really obvious question!


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