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$1.50 6max hyper - ATC shoving spot

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Poker Stars, $1.40 Buy-in (40/80 blinds, 8 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 3 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (SB): 1,334 (16.7 bb)
BB: 1,188 (14.9 bb)
BTN: 478 (6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9 6
BTN folds, Hero raises to 1,326 and is all-in, BB folds

Results:

Spoiler

184 pot
Hero mucked 9 6 and won 184 (96 net)

When I was playing this spot, I was adamant that this was a shove. With the big blind having a stack of 12bb effective, and me having 13bb effective, i knew that if I shove ATC here, it's going to be profitable because the big blind should fold 90-95% of his hands (Key word: should), knowing that if he folded, the shorty was likely to be busted first.

Then I remembered that the big blind was an aggressive recreational player, who probably had no idea of his profitable ranges in this spot, and would likely call here with a 20% range, which would make my shove massively unprofitable.

So I just wanted to get anybody's opinion on spots like these, particularly in the microstakes, because they seem to be a double edged sword. Yes we may come across these spots that seem hugely profitable, but if the general playerpool isn't GTO/Nash savvy, it can backfire on us (luckily i escaped this example unharmed). It's up to us to navigate these spots using intuition, adjusting our ranges and being flexible.

What do you think?


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3 replies
ghaleon
Joined: 17.10.2007

Personally I would avoid taking deep stack shove plays that rely heavily on fold equity. If villain is aggro/maniac recreational player then best play with weak hands like these is often to just open fold as miraise will not create enough fold equity and villain is likely not playing passive enough versus open limp style.


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SRwtf
Joined: 19.03.2014

agreed, you're putting all your chips on the line, there's a 50%+ fold equity you got there. The way you put it the guy would call you 1 in 5 times so you get just a slight ~60% folding rate there.
So you put in your whole stack (16+BB) in the middle to win 144chips ( less than 2 BB) where in 35% of the time, which is a little bit more than 1/3, you lose almost everything (3BB left...)

There's no reason to do that. And raising makes no sense either, if he doesn't fold to a minraise maybe he will fold to a higher raise - but then again he might have a hand there in 20% of the time or more or just call for fun/to protect the BB. And then you're out of position.
If you were in position things would look slightly different.

Don't do that, it's a tilty/not well thought of action that is clearly not +EV


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Anto11
Joined: 25.02.2011

Hello all,

Originally posted by ghaleon
Personally I would avoid taking deep stack shove plays that rely heavily on fold equity. If villain is aggro/maniac recreational player then best play with weak hands like these is often to just open fold as miraise will not create enough fold equity and villain is likely not playing passive enough versus open limp style.

This. With info about villain it could be a good shove but if he is a weak loose fish than definitely push is not a good idea.

Guys if you have any questions, do not hesitate to write in this thread by clicking the button or

Best regards,
Antoan :pokerface:


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