Hello,
so I was reading SnG articles and I couldn't understand two things.
1st article: Chip Value (2): The Fundamentals of the Independent Chip Model (ICM)
How did they get those numbers (probabilities of finishing in place)? I mean I tried to get them using ICM, but the numbers were quite different (ICM only shows cEV).
2nd article: Chip Value (4): The Risk Premium Concept
Again... how did they come up with numbers like 49% equity and 54% equity? Where did those numbers come frome?
Hey arnsaa1,
I'll move this to the Sit and Go board where the experts will explain it better than I can.
Regards
Laz
Hi there!
As for the first question- I think it goes like this : If we play correctly (ICM wise-push/fold-raise/fold etc) and our opponents play correctly(perfect ICM) , we are gonna finish this often in the given positions. Because we are a comfortable midstack and there are 2 short stacks in the prebubble play, the chances we end up not in the money, are low. However, I definitely think it depends what the blind level is and here it is not shown.
Second question: cEV is different than ICM EV. cEV counts only the chips you re gonna win/lose(pure odds) and ICM EV adds risk premium into it(that's the ICM tax you pay). I will give you an example:
You are the midstack on the bubble. You are sitting on the BB with 12bb stack. SB is the bigstack and he has you well covered-he has 25bb. CO has 5bb and BTN has 8bb. CO/BTN fold and the SB(chipleader) pushes for all his chips. You are getting about 43.75% pot odds to call. If we look at the situation cEV wise, you have to call with any hand that has 43.75% or more equity against SB's pushing range. However, because we are on the bubble and we are so close to getting ITM, it's crazy to make a call here with a hand like A5o or 33/44. There is a huge ICM tax into it, because we risk much more than we are worth winning. If we win-we are not ITM. If we lose- we bust on the bubble, when we had a huge chance to get ITM, given there were 2 shorter stacks. So that is a simple example of how ICM tax works.
Programs like ICMizer, holdem calculator do those ICM calculations for us, we know exactly how much the risk premium is(ICM tax). For you it's important to understand how it works.
Cheers!
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