Where to fold? 1/2

So, the SB had QQ and the BB JTs?

You can probably save the last 2 BB, maybe the last 4 BB if you don't mind a sleepless night once in a while.

Both JT. I feel, I have mistake, but I can't understand, where.

The final situation on the river: There is 25.5 BB in the middle, and it is 2 BB to call. You get some 12.5:1 on the call. You need to be good slightly less than 8% of the time. The worst hand I can imagine any of them holding is AQ or a badly overplayed and overbluffed flush draw by a complete maniac. This simply will not happen close to 8% of the time. They aren't kidding that much.

You can make similar assessments for the first river call. Here you get less than 10:1, but you have to be good more than 10% of the time since you risk getting raised and reraised and feel obliged (which happened) to call. But I don't blame you for calling, it's not a horrible mistake.

On the turn, for the final call, you get 7:1 to call. With implied odds, the 4 almost clean outs, together with the small possibility that you are best (vs AQ/KQ, K :spade:J :spade:) makes this hard to fold without knowledge (more than basic stats) of both players. The SB could be a maniac and the BB could know it. He'd be right to try to get you off a hand with as little as Ax, isolating the maniac.

That's my 2c

GTO might dictate otherwise. (Folding top 2 is rare in this game.)

Also, possibly a raise OTR is better than calling. This might push one of them off a split (or even 222), isolating you with a potentially overplayed hand.

Thank you, YohanN7, for such detailed reply!

I guess I would have folded after the raise on the turn

Both JT?? Sonovabitches!

I'm never folding on the turn in this situation. On the river we probably could find a fold after BB is raising again, but most of the time I would just call down and then go on a crazy-monkey tilt ♦

pcbeem, can you describe your thought process? we have 1:8 for our 4 outs+implides (huge).

DarkLuxor, it's really tough, when you make thin fold in big pot and than watching some crazy showdowns, still, not very comfortable to call all this raises, feeling they doing with you what they want with their nuts)

TUrn is not a fold since they could stil play AQ KQ this way but i think after BB raised the RIver and since he did just coldcall Preflop, JT is quite likely.

I dont think that SB could x/r here something like AT or AJ on the turn unless he is a spewmonkey. If I had a cap range here(something like 77+,AQ,ATs,KQs,QJs,JTs) as the BU I'd surely x back AJ,AT,JJ,QJs,TT it becomes really shitty if you get xr-d with these cause it is hard to b/f them in this spot I have position on em so why would'nt I use it ?

So basically the worst value hand I bet here is KQ and so he does not get value with it and the other hands that I'd b/f are 77-99, protection against these is not important. Hence I guess SB could value x/r here only with KQ+. I dont know if he could bluff, but if he does it is certainly very expensive for him so both players must fold a lot to make him break even. He either turns something like TT into a bluff or he calls with T9s on the flop to bluff x/r the turn but the both would suggest that he is overly sophisticated for this stake.
If he does not bluff at all here, which is the most likely option IMO then BU can certainly fold KQ here. And this is where the BB comes into question, because when someone x-3bets under these circumstances than he is super strong, I'd say set+. Someone sane enough would surely not raise AQ as the BB here, and even AK is very questionable. We also do block AK, and considering that SB is likely to have AQ,KQ or rarely AK our full house outs are also blocked.

These really suggest a fold on the turn IMO, even if it is an extremely tough one.

kavboj84, since we have blockers to AA and KK we have 4 clean outs against even set. So we need 1:10 to call the turn, having 2/16 (maybe little less, but let's presume that 2/16 is fairly close), so we need 4 Big bets of implied odds. Assuming villains hit board hard it's quite realistic.

By the way, I don't think we have to apply GTO principles in multiway pots against fish)

I think that SB-s range is ace heavy as well (~50%) and BB blocks your outs somewhat too(~20%) so if you have 3 outs for a boat here then you are lucky IMO.
While playing at the tables this would've been a call without thinking for me, but looking at it offline more thoroughly I'd fold now(unless I have reads of them spewing). But it's your business.

BTW there was nothing GTO wise in my reasoning just plain logic.

"I think that SB-s range is ace heavy as well (~50%) and BB blocks your outs somewhat too(~20%)"
Only preflop ranges, flop play reduces Ax hands to only the weakest part something like A9-6, assuming it's a small chance of slowplaying two pairs+ multiway OOP. On the turn we can exlude them as well. So on the turn, after raise and 3bet only SB coud have Ace in his range - AQ(6 combos), and it will happen very rarely, both because it's not a common line and it's tiny fraction of his range.
Considering, that sometimes wi'll see something like KsJs on showdown, if we got there, for me it's still good turn call.

And. Constructing bet/folding range from the weakest part of our range in this spot is very GTOish)