NL10. AA at very dry flop

I am from anothet comunity, so sorry for my English

given the card on turn and his range not changing and ur hand gets only 2 value streets. id check call 1x to allow him to bluff, since he doesnt rl got that many Kx in his range, and his value range will only call 1 bet and not 2

so basically vs bluff range u chk call 1x, or 2x depending on his agression, vs tight oponents only once

vs value range, if hes station, u can bet 3x ofc, but given tight oponent ull be better off betting river, since itll go check check turn vs pairs and u might risk him folding turn

People at this limit won't be folding a full house very often, so there's actually plenty of value to be had.
A player with an inelastic range doesn't care how much I bet so I'd just overbet shove the river. Don't be scared they'll fold, if he has nothing he'd fold to any bet and if he has quads give him a round of applause and move on, if he has a pocket pair watch him tank/call.
That's my opinion but I'm a bit of a fish anyway! ♦

Good luck - and your English is excellent by the way!

Mal.

From the stats Villain looks pretty much like a nit. You'll often see such people defend their QQ or similar. Only Kx and Jx got you beaten here, so I'd risk it and bet pot size or even shove. If he wanna see then it'll become expensive.

We can't predict river ott, and on the turn K its actually very hard to get value from worse. Villains only Kx float is probably AK and we block AK very hard plus hes a nit so he probably doesn't float at all and when you bet turn all his TT- folds, QQ folds turn, if not river. I agree with Darkyd that we only have 2 streets of value here so I like check turn and small bet/fold most rivers.

I've value owned myself w KK+ vs quads so many times this month, yeah we make the boat but if we reduce villain's range to trips on the turn, on the river our "nutted" boat is pretty useless. I doubt nit villain calls QQ on turn so we actually should basically never be good OTR after betting the turn. WTSD stat would be nice, but even if nit calls QQ ott he will likely fold river since now all Kx beats him. Nit likely won't have Kx after calling flop, hence we actually are value-owning ourselves on this river even though our hand seems super strong.

Mal, you're right that he has an inelastic range but unfortunately imo when we bet turn that range is: 90% Jx, 10% Kx/QQ

I think everything is fine. Best move would be to overbet on the river - we beat his 22, QQ and Kx. There are very tiny possibility that he have J here (also with Jack he would raise your bet on turn).

You think a nit is calling 22 here on the river for any sizing let alone an overbet jam? 22 is effectively ace high here.

I mean with 22 in his hands he has full house of tripple two`s and two jacks

Originally posted by KKNgroup
I mean with 22 in his hands he has full house of tripple two`s and two jacks

No he doesn't, he has triple jacks and two twos, meaning he is beat by any other pair, meaning his hand is as strong a bluffcatcher as ace high.