Hello,
BB = reg
CO = reg weak
MP= reg who play really a "clean" game, he won't take tricky value line nor slowplay and cf quite a lot once he has checked.
open 16% from MP, cbet 70% overall cf 85% when checked as PFR. 23% agg freq river
Preflop: std I guess
Flop: BB is going to lead all is good hand here I think and CO is never going to cr and it seems farly unlikely than MP is willing to cr because : 1° CO will never stab anything light 2°it's not obvious than I have to bet this kind of hand (doesn't seems standard to me at least) 3° absolutely not in his game to try such a thing.
So even if I am not keen on my play, I won't deny it.
Turn: against 2 impossible to bet imo, if we were deeper maybe but here impossible.
If MP had a dry DP or set, he should lead 100% here imo
River: I don't understand what he could have in value except for a AA/KK+:spade: or AAJT,KKJT. he might be bluffing with something like KJTx,89TJ,FD Ahi, FDKhi+SD.
By shoving river I risk 73 to win 86 ( 46% FE to BE )... do you think where is any chance I make fold overpair here? seems hard to me, because I am repping nothing, KKJ4 or hand like that, QQJT:spade: but all or them seems pretty unlikely, so I am mainly tring to bluff a bluff, how frequantly do you think he have one?
Other points for not doing the bluff are :1 CO is always drawing here, so it reduces the amont of combo of bluff from MP ( and I block JT as well, but I block a A rainbow in the same time). 2 MP play up to 600, so if he want to be curious he will be.
€0.50/€1 Pot Limit Omaha Hi
4 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Stacks:
CO (€99.50) 100bb
Falber (BTN) (€149.92) 150bb
SB (€128.52) 129bb
BB (€88.12) 88bb
Pre-Flop: (€1.50, 4 players) Falber is BTN J♦ 10:club: A♦ 2♥
CO raises to €3, Falber calls €3, SB calls €2.50, BB calls €2
Flop: 2♠ 9♥ Q♠ (€12, 4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, CO checks, Falber bets €12, SB folds, BB calls €12, CO calls €12
Turn: 4♣ (€48, 3 players)
BB checks, CO checks, Falber checks
River: 4♥ (€48, 3 players)
BB bets €38.50, CO folds,Falber ?
