Hi guys, this hand was posted by Fidel22 on the Advanced Hand Discussion. Thank you all for reading this analysis , I hope you find it somewhat useful.
Originally posted by Fidel22
villain: 22/16/0
RFI: 80
AFq: 45
46 handsPoker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.SB: $120.10 (120.1 bb)
Hero (BB): $100 (100 bb)
UTG: $124.16 (124.2 bb)
MP: $155.20 (155.2 bb)
CO: $146.01 (146 bb)
BTN: $99.82 (99.8 bb)Preflop: Hero is BB with J
K
3 folds, BTN raises to $3, SB folds, Hero calls $2Flop: ($6.50) A
9
(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $4, Hero calls $4Turn: ($14.50) 7
Hero checks, BTN bets $8, Hero calls $8River: ($30.50) T
Hero checks, BTN bets $22.65, Hero foldsShould I x/c OTT or x/f is better?
Thx!
So, the question here is: is our hand strong enough to call turn?
My opinion: Yes, not close!
The best way to figure out why Boromir is saying this is by visualizing villain's betting range on the turn.
We don't have much info on villain so let's assume an average 100NL reg.
The best way to do it is by breaking down villain's range (obvious I guess). So, for value we could say he will have:
- monsters (AA, 77, 99, A7, 79s, A9),
- medium valuebetting hands (good Ax, maybe A8-AK)
- 7x some players cbet on the flop, some will check back those (we can give him some combos).
and then some bluffs. The bluff part is a bit more tricky to do, I'd say he will be probably betting again every draw he had on the flop (T8, 86s, J8, JT, T6s, 56s, 85s) some random hand he made a flush on the turn (Q♠:T♠:, Q♠:8♠:, Q♠:6♠:, T♠:5♠:, etc).
Against a range like that our equity looks like this:
Board: A♠7♣9♦ 7♠
Equity Win Tie
MP2 43.57% 42.21% 1.36% { KsJs }
MP3 56.43% 55.07% 1.36% { AA, 99, 77, A7s+, JTs, J8s-J7s, T8s-T6s, 97s, 86s-85s, 65s, QsJs, QsTs, Qs8s, Qs6s, Qs5s, Ts5s, A7o+, JTo, J8o, T8o }
We have 26% pot odds, so seems like a very clear cut call.
Arguably K♠:J♠: is better than 98s for calling turn. 98s has 36% equity and will have a harder time playing the river since no river gives us a strong hand.
And it will happen, more often than you think, that river blank goes check-check and we win the pot. If villain bets again on a turn that does not improve us we have a bluffcatcher situation and there's that. It should be a check/fold on the river since I don't think people are 3barreling enough on A high boards, and our hand blocks a lot of villain's potencial bluffs.
What can we learn from this hand?
[*] - In a lot of late position post flop situations we can play draws passively when we have showdown value.
[*] - Trying to visualize opponents range it's a key step for deciding what to do with our hand. This statement is very related to the previous one. It's very different when you get second barreled on some turn by a BU's range or by a UTG range, and your thought process should be different, although you might hold the exact same two cards on the same board.
Question: do you think we can check/shove for value on a 2♠:?
river completing our flush?