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QQ squeeze vs 4bet

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Anomic
Joined: 15.01.2012

Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

Play hand

$0.1/$0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)

Known players:
[tg]BB$30.12:///////;MP3$25.00:///////;CO$6.63:///////;BU$35.65:///////;SB (Hero)$38.46:///////;[/tg]

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q:h, Q:d.
MP3 raises to $0.75, CO folds, BU calls $0.75, Hero raises to $3.50, BB folds, MP3 raises to $7.50, BU folds, Hero raises to $38.56, MP3 calls $17.50.

Flop: ($64.46) 5:d, 9:d, 7:d (2 players)

Turn: ($64.46) 8:h (2 players)

River: ($64.46) 6:d (2 players)

Final Pot: $64.46.
Results follow:

Spoiler

Hero shows a flush, queen high(Q:h Q:d).
MP3 shows a flush, king high(K:d K:h).

Hero wins with a flush, queen high(Q:h Q:d).
MP3 wins with a flush, king high(K:d K:h).

MP is a 25/18 reg who opens in MP 24% and folds 44% to 3bets, BU is a whale. I think my squeeze for value is a must here. When I get 4bet by the reg though, it gets a little trickier. His 4bet-range is only 2. I shoved because I thought 3bet/folding QQ just can't be right, especially 5handed. Opinions?


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3 replies
metza
Joined: 28.01.2012

You posted CO stats but it is MP that raises and BU flats. Definite squeeze if MP open 24% and fold 44%.

vs 4bet range of 2 (is this for MP? if overall 4bet range probably his MP 4bet is like KK+) we can consider a fold, but I think with whale in hand he will value 4bet AK so its fine to just ship it, I think QQ has 40% vs AK/QQ+ so with the dead money in the pot after his 4bet, Id guess EV is higher than folding (EV 0).

I think it is important to say that it in general it is not always a mistake to value 3bet a hand but fold it to a 4bet. If villain calls a ton vs 3b, and almost never 4b, we will 3bet wider for value, but his 4bet range is very strong and so we dont want to 3b/5b or 3b/c many of the hands that were 3bet for value. But because the 4b is so rare from such a guy, the 3b is still way more profitable than a flat.


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Anomic
Joined: 15.01.2012

Yeah meant MP, sorry. You don't think he'd just call AK to keep the whale in?


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KingKas
Joined: 30.06.2012

Alright. Technically, if he has a set 4bet range of 2, he is 4betting AK,QQ+ (2,56%). Now, we do not know, how many hands you have on him. He might only be 4betting AKs,QQ+ (1,66%). That makes a huge difference to us.

If we raise and we assume villain never folds to a shove, because he only 4bets for value, then him raising to 7,5$ and us reraising is similar to him shoving, since we don't have any fold equity. Now we have to call 21.5$ into a 64.46$ pot so we require around 33% equity.

QQ vs {AK,QQ+} = 40% equity

QQ vs {AKs,QQ+} = 28% equity

I assume, he's not alway calling AKo, if he's that tight. Maybe versus fishy players more than a SB squeeze/shove. So I think shoving is not a good option.

But as metza said, 3betting is a very good plan here. That guy calls wide, and he's almost never going to have AA,KK in his flatting range. Let's take a flop like 222, you can barrel 3 streets for value.

If he 4bets however, I think there's the option to fold, and the option to call. I mean, his range is pretty much face up, and you can defend your hand for 1-2 streets on non-Ace non-King boards. Although I still prefer folding.


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