This logic is flawed. You don't consider the whole subtree, just take out two branches and compare those, and that's why you come to this conclusion. If you want to be correct, every possible outcome should be taken into account, added up, and compared at their roots. I'll call these x* and b* (star is a common wildcard for every possible character that you may put after the previous character )
Characters designate the sequential actions taken by both players.
So x* is, when it goes either:
a) x-x
b) x-b-f
c) x-b-c
d) x-b-r
etc...(I ain't gonna list when it goes bet-3bet OTR, but for the sake of completeness it should be also mentioned)
And b* is:
f) b-f
g) b-c
h)b-r-f
i)b-r-c
etc....
Now instead of comparing b* to x* you just take c) and g)+h) and compare those, and neglect every other options, while in the above situation you win the most with a) and you didn't even think on that.
To make it simple:
with a bet OTR, you put in that one ( not the Russian
) bet for the one which your opponent makes the call with, and to make the bet profitable you need to win that bet back at least 50% of the time, including the possibility of getting raised as well of course. This means that in some cases you may need even more than 50% equity to bet out, because you may not have enough equity vs your opponents calling range that compensates frequency of your bet/folding, i.e. you'll win back less than 50% of your river bet.
