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Analysing range/turn raise

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RAU4ever
Joined: 11.09.2011

Hi guys, trying to get back into it. Still have to learn loads, so hope to be posting quite a bit again in the near future...

Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2665540
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: $16.25
SB: $10.00
Hero (BB): $13.11
UTG: $18.40
MP: $10.85
CO: $15.00

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BB with T :spade: K :diamond:
2 folds, CO raises to $0.30, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.65) Q :spade: J :heart: 9 :spade: (2 players)
Hero bets $0.50, CO calls $0.50

Turn: ($1.65) Q :diamond: (2 players)
Hero bets $1, CO raises to $3

Villain: after only 100 hands, VPIP 26, PFR 24, 3bet 12

1. Is donkbet ok? I thought I needed to protect on this wet board and the texture makes it more unlikely that there will be a cbet
2. Is turn a snapfold?
- giving villain a range of QQ, JJ, 99, AQ, KQ, QJ, QT, Q9, KT, T8s, Q8s for his turn raise, giving me 44.5% equity, no ways to improve and facing another possible riverbet. Is that range ok or am I being overly pessimistic, seeing as villain did not raise on the flop (without sets in this range, I'd have >50% equity)?
- I guess I'd give CO a PF opening range of 22+, A2s+, K6s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, A5o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+ for 33% according to LAG standard CO open range. Maybe a bit less, as I'm not quite sure if villain is TAG or LAG with only a samplesize of 100).
3. Or does my donkbet or sizing (should probably make it bigger on the turn) make it so that villain will do weird things often enough to somehow continue the hand? My standard at NL10 would be absolutely no way, but just checking...


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7 replies
metza
Joined: 28.01.2012

I don't like donkbetting here unless you know he has really low cbet flop. Because otherwise all the hands you need to protect against will cbet themselves and you can x/r. Stuff that gets checked back has insanely low equity vs your hand, for example 66 will check back but needs runners to catch up and will likely just fold to donk anyway.

I don't agree with your turn range you gave him at all. Why do you think he will raise quads here? Same with most boats, he will just call them. I would not be folding the turn here.


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kevin2001
Joined: 14.02.2009

1. Agree that X/R>donk here. Villain will most likely cbet this board and also has a lot of hands that connected well.
2. Definitely not folding.
3. Turn betsize is fine.

I dont think the call PF is fine


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CrazedTulip
Joined: 19.09.2009

absolutely nothing wrong with prf call and of course he is going to raise boats and quads otherwise it will be a 36bb pot on river and you are almost always x/c not betting and on many runouts x/f river with your range.
on nl10 that turn raise will be QJ+ huge amount of time and guy does not look like type who would raise naked Q


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Tomaloc
Joined: 17.01.2011

am i the only one who thinks villain has a ton of checkbehind hands otf

turn is just disgusting, calldown and lose


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

PF it is a bit wide to defend that hand vs CO.
The board is perfect for x/r OTF. Don't you think that by donking we play face up?
I would call turn raise and see the river.


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Wolfske
Joined: 24.02.2009

Originally posted by Tomaloc
am i the only one who thinks villain has a ton of checkbehind hands otf

turn is just disgusting, calldown and lose

No you're not the only one. Villain has tons of Jx and some weaker Q's wich he should check. He shouldn't even be happy with AQ, KQ here. On the other hand he does have some OESD's w/ Tx so he pbb would bet that I guess, same for some 2 pair and maybe FD's.

I would also opt for a X/R. Crycall the turn and reevaluate river.


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RAU4ever
Joined: 11.09.2011

Ok, to the people that say call raise turn: what kind of range do you put him on to think that this would be profitable? What is your action on the river, say with a blank or with As?


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