Everyday decision

A good answer, from the FL strategy...

There was no pre-flop raiser
You are out of position

You always bet! Your cards are irrelevant. The opponent must fold only 1/3 times in order to make this play profitable.

If the opponent calls your bet:
... You can bet again on the turn with a made hand or a draw.
... You can abandon the hand if it has no value. You play check/fold, that is, check and then fold to any bets.
If the opponent raises the flop:
... You raise again with a good made hand or a strong draw.
... Fold with any other hand.

Originally posted by jmunger
The opponent must fold only 1/3 times in order to make this play profitable.

This is simply a consequence of the pot odds. It isn't an argument for betting.
I know this logic comes from the strategy articles, but it is still incorrect.

Originally posted by redskwerl

Originally posted by jmunger
The opponent must fold only 1/3 times in order to make this play profitable.

This is simply a consequence of the pot odds. It isn't an argument for betting.
I know this logic comes from the strategy articles, but it is still incorrect.

Right. But why?

• It applies in full only whenever this is the last bet that goes into the pot on our part. This is not the case here since we certainly aren't folding to a raise.
• Even if it does apply in full, there may be plays with higher EV.

I only apply a "bet regardless rule" blindly when I have non-nuts (down to utter trash) in the big blind when the small blind has limped and checked on the flop. This is, in my experience, truly money in the bank when we bet.

Then there is the 33% success required. Generally, limpers in UTG aren't there to fold on the flop. They are there to either slowplay or float. I took a 45% limping range to Combonator, pretending it was me who had accidentally limped UTG. I am folding between 10% and 20% on this flop (depending on what I do with K high and 8 or better kicker). A professional UTG limper is probably much tighter preflop, and folds some 15% here. Not enough.

There are things to say about the "follow-up" if he calls or raises as well. For one thing, we would be 3-bet bluffing a hell of a lot (at least if we count an FD/SD as a "strong draw"). Knowing how these limpers think, if he raises, he might very well be on a better draw than us. The least likely holding is something he intends to fold on the turn. You are in for a 3-barrel rebluff if you opt to reraise.

That said, a bet may still be the best. It may be the cheapest way of drawing, since he might check behind on turn thinking we have a small pair. I think this is a genuinely difficult (but everyday) decision.

Hey,

I think the hand is too strong to try to bluff it, I would probably c/c and try to hit due to my good equity. It's the line who I feels is the less bad to me (got a lot of feelings today ).

You spoke about follow up, think about how often you check/call the flop and the turn or even c/c flop and then c/r turn. You shouldn't have a lot of hands to do that. Q9s seems to be a really good one. You can still hit a pair and see the showdown.

Obviously a read on your opponent's tendencies could help a lot to choose a better line, but as default I like to check a lot in unraised pot. Your opponent's range is stronger than yours when you check on the BB preflop. If he is aware of that you won't get a lot of folds or it will cost you quite a lot to bluff.

This is a bit off topic, but Q9s could be a raise pre. I think it's easier to play those medium hands in spots you know very well (single raise pot, HU).