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FD+GS+ 1 Over

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18071987
Joined: 02.05.2007

PokerStars - $2+$0.20|100/200 Ante 25 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 70.15 BB (VPIP: 18.33, PFR: 15.00, 3Bet Preflop: 5.77, Hands: 120)
BTN: 9.41 BB (VPIP: 8.40, PFR: 4.39, 3Bet Preflop: 2.04, Hands: 119)
SB: 34.21 BB (VPIP: 16.88, PFR: 9.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 78)
Hero (BB): 37.91 BB
UTG: 35.63 BB (VPIP: 12.87, PFR: 9.90, 3Bet Preflop: 6.52, Hands: 101)
UTG+1: 41.47 BB (VPIP: 23.08, PFR: 15.38, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 26)
MP: 33.9 BB (VPIP: 30.00, PFR: 16.18, 3Bet Preflop: 3.23, Hands: 70)
MP+1: 22.18 BB (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 14.81, 3Bet Preflop: 7.41, Hands: 56)

8 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.5 BB) Hero has 5♦ A♦

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 2 BB

Flop: (7 BB, 2 players) 3♠ 4♦ J♦
SB bets 4.5 BB, Hero calls 4.5 BB

Turn: (15.99 BB, 2 players) Q♠
SB bets 15.99 BB, Hero calls 15.99 BB

River: (47.97 BB, 2 players) J♠
SB bets 10.6 BB and is all-in, fold

SB wins 47.97 BB

If I will outs I have 13 clear. Pot Odds I should have every street 1:2.5. I think when he bet so much he want protect his hand and I don't want stack off on the flop vs stron betting or just should close my eyes and stack off on the flop? But i will be more happy to make AI move when I will be OOP not IP.


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Flop looks fine to call only against a tight player and take a little bit safe approach, but on his pot size bet on turn you should fold. You don’t get the odds to call and he had almost no stack left and than you can’t call with a draw like this I’m afraid.

Normal I would stack of most of the time with so many outs, but if you call here you need to fold most turns if you don’t improved like now.

Best regards,
SDK1987


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18071987
Joined: 02.05.2007

Thanks Sdk for always nice replays.:)

I was calculated pot odds like this: we need 1:2.5 From turn to river. So he bet 16 into pot 16. So we need to call 16 to win 32 so we have 1:2. We need another 0.5 to make our call profitable so we count implied odds he need to put extra 0.5 from his bet from turn so minimum he need to bet on the river 8 Bb. He bet 10 so we have profitable call?

Did I miss something? Or maybe my way of thinking is incorrect? Please fell free to writte your opinion. :)


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

On turn you have only the river card to improve your hand. In this example you have 13 outs of 46 unknown cards that can improve your hand. So you only hit in 28% of the time your straight or flush. If you have pot odds of 1 out 2 you need 33% equity to make this call profitable and you don’t reach it here.

Also if the board paired and you hit your flush it’s still likely you lose against a full house and than you need to discount 3♦: and Q♦: in this situation as well.

Also your implied odds are bad in this spot, because you can’t win much more on the river if you hit and you need to invest a lot of your stack as well if your calling on the turn. That’s a reason why I always shove or fold on this turn, because your and villain are committed in this situation.

Hopefully clears this something up and otherwise you can’t always asking it here.

Best regards,
SDK1987


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18071987
Joined: 02.05.2007

Also if the board paired and you hit your flush it’s still likely you lose against a full house and than you need to discount 3♦: and Q♦: in this situation as well.

Spoiler

Yea thats true I was thinking about those cards as well and those are not clear outs.

I am really happy that you are so kind and explain.

Thats SDK one more time.

Thank you indeed :) :f_love:


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